It is not unreasonable to speculate that in 10 years, historians — if any are alive at that time — will regard the signing of an agreement with Iran as the first step on the path to World War III.
The reasons are all too simple. The agreement currently being negotiated to deter Iran from having an atomic bomb for 10 years will, I imagine, be regarded by the world as implying that in 10 years the agreement will terminate and Iran will be an atomic power by the 11th year, if not earlier.
That being the case, one can assume that a number of countries will wish to protect themselves and will take such steps as are necessary to become atomic powers.â€¨Iran’s determination to eliminate Israel recently was confirmed by Iran’s army chief; the commitment appears non-negotiable. It seems unlikely that Israel will wait and do nothing until Iran is in a position to carry out that threat.
This all assumes that Iran intends to observe the terms of any agreement it signs. This is extremely unlikely. The Koran regards an agreement or treaty as a necessary weapon of war in dealing with a country more powerful than one’s own. Iran will certainly attempt to evade the agreement’s provisions and tell the necessary lies to avoid detection. It has a well-documented record of doing this, and there is no reason to suppose this policy will change.
Other countries have had atomic bombs for 70 years and the threat of MAD (mutually assured destruction) has proved an effective deterrent to their use.â€¨But Iran is different.
Iran is not a secular country. It is ruled by its version of a pope. Any war it initiates will be regarded as a religious war, waged by fanatics who are not only unafraid of dying, but who regard death in the name of Allah a prelude to a glorious existence in heaven.â€¨MAD will not apply. A people who will tie a bomb belt round the waist of a child of 8 and send him to a social gathering to maximize carnage will not recognize any restraints.
It can be taken as axiomatic that when or if Iran has atomic bombs, they will be dropped on Israel and any other nation that may stand in the way of the fulfillment of their declared ambition to unify the Arab world and restore the dominance of Arab civilization lost to the Christian world by the end of the 16th century.
Why has the world drifted into such a catatonic state as not to realize what is happening? If our president had a mustache, carried an umbrella and wore a hat, we might find it easier to understand. Barack Obama does not look like Neville Chamberlain, the British former prime minister who served during World War II, but he behaves exactly as Chamberlain did. Both were ruthless in pushing through their own ideas, both thought they understood their enemy better than their colleagues, and both thought they were liked and respected by their enemies. On all counts they were and are disastrously wrong. Chamberlain betrayed Czechoslovakia. Obama is betraying Israel.
Nothing is ever too late. The negotiation with Iran has to be stopped. All their facilities related to the manufacture of atomic bombs have to be destroyed. Sanctions have to be increased until Iran’s cooperation is secured. Only then should Iran be restored to its rightful place in the comity of nations. Until that time, it should be treated as an extremely dangerous pariah.
Sir Roland Franklin is a retired British investment banker living in the West Indies. His daughter and her family live in the Bay Area.