What does Bibi really want?
That’s the question many here in Israel are asking upon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s return from his latest U.S. trip. I’ve been hearing it from diplomats, think-tankers, pundits and ordinary Israelis, and they all seem puzzled.
Does he really want peace with the Palestinians, as he says, or is that just for public consumption?
Bibi appears to have worked out an agreement with the Obama administration for a non-renewable 90-day settlement freeze in exchange for hefty political and financial benefits, but no one here expects it can lead to an early agreement on borders, the first goal, in the next round of talks.
Already the Palestinians are grousing that the freeze excludes Jerusalem and isn’t permanent. There is no indication Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will go along or, as in the previous freeze, drag his feet until the last moment before entering talks and then walk out because it wasn’t renewed.
Bibi has made peace with Washington, which is a higher priority than any agreement with the Palestinians. But how badly does he want peace with the Palestinians?
He drove a hard bargain with the Obama administration — we didn’t yet know many details at the start of the week — but are he and Abbas ready to make the tough decisions that peace will require? Or are we in for more drawn-out talks and diversions over issues such as settlements, rather than substantive questions such as borders, security, Jerusalem, refugees and water?
Some here feel Bibi sees Abbas as his insurance policy, an indecisive leader of a deeply divided movement who can be more adept at finding excuses than opportunities, a trait Bibi shares.
To the extent — and it seems diminishing — that Israelis are talking about the peace process, many here tell me that they believe he is capable of making the historic breakthrough, but he sees no reason to do so right now.
After watching his performance in New Orleans at the Jewish Federations of North America’s General Assembly, there’s a growing feeling that Bibi is just biding his time until there is a new U.S. president who doesn’t put Israeli-Palestinian peace high on his agenda.
George W. Bush is remembered fondly here because although he was the first U.S. president to declare Palestinian statehood a U.S. goal, he was all talk and no action. A lot like Bibi, who talks a good game but isn’t that anxious to play.
That’s another reason President Barack Obama remains unpopular here in what one Israeli called “fly-over territory.”
Obama may have increased security assistance to Israel, provided weapons systems that Bush wouldn’t and keeps upping his offers of diplomatic and security backing, but he has been unable to convince many here that he really cares about them.
“He may be strongly supportive intellectually but he hasn’t got it in his kishkes,” a friend complained.
Part of Obama’s unpopularity here is the result of an intense campaign waged by Republicans to brand him the Muslim Manchurian candidate and an anti-Semite, as
well as some guerilla warfare here by Netanyahu’s allies to poison the well. But most of it is the president’s own fault.
He has flown over Israel many times and made several trips, as recently as last week, to bolster ties with the Muslim world, but he hasn’t found time to stop here in Israel even once.
One reason his supporters give is that he doesn’t want to bolster Netanyahu’s standing. That doesn’t wash. Netanyahu remains popular and has no real challenger from any direction, but more importantly, the American president can easily go over the head of any prime minister and talk directly to the Israeli people. He can use the Knesset podium, media interviews and public appearances to explain his views and convince the Israeli public that he cares about them and deserves their trust.
The trip is long overdue, and the more Obama delays the more damage he does to his efforts to broker peace.
Obama has other problems as well. Neither Abbas nor Netanyahu shares his enthusiasm for the peace process. What’s more, the status quo for both isn’t all that bad.
“We already have peace,” several friends told me. “There are no buses exploding in Tel Aviv and the shops are busy and the cafés are full on Dizingoff Street.”
It’s a familiar theme, even among those who say they’re in the peace camp. The P.A. security forces, with U.S. training, are doing a good job of maintaining order on the West Bank, the Gaza blockade by Israel and Egypt is keeping out the suicide bombers, and the economies of Israel and the West Bank are doing well. The Palestinians don’t have to recognize Israel or deal with Hamas, so why stir it all up by arguing over issues neither side is ready to do anything serious about?
There are many questions as to what Bibi really wants, but the consensus seems to be that he is playing a waiting game — waiting for Obama to go or just give up.
Bibi may be capable of making historic compromises, but not any time soon. With the Palestinians so deeply divided, there is no ready partner, he doesn’t trust Obama. He sees no urgency, and right now he couldn’t sell it to the Israeli people.
Meanwhile, Bibi will go through the motions of declaring his undying desire for peace if only the other side is as flexible and willing as he is.
But what Bibi really wants, said a friend and former colleague of his, is doing whatever it takes to get re-elected.
Douglas M. Bloomfield filed this piece from Jerusalem. He is the president of Bloomfield Associates, a Washington, D.C., lobbying and consulting firm, and is a former legislative director and chief lobbyist for AIPAC.