The fraying of America as superpower threatens Israel

Friday, November 28, 1997 | by

Earl Raab

Israel's security depends on America maintaining its status as a superpower. That is the bottom line, not the peace process with the Palestinian Arabs.

The Palestinian peace process is important in itself for Israel. But the desire of Iraq, Iran and Syria to destroy Israel has nothing to do with the Palestinians, in whom they have little interest.

A recent survey found that, by a two-to-one ratio, more Israelis identify Iran than the Palestinians as "the most dangerous enemy facing Israel today."

The Iraqi crisis has further demonstrated an axiom that Israelis know well: The larger and more aggressive regimes in the Middle East neighborhood are the real danger to Israel. American Jews had better pay attention.

One conventional scenario is that, as of today, Israel could protect itself against Iraq and Syria—even perhaps Iran—if other regimes such as Egypt stay out of the melee. But if they gang up, if there is an extended conflict and no outside intervention, the existence of Israel would be threatened.

Only America's deterrent force stands in the way of that scenario. There is no present sign that America's resolve to protect Israel is faltering—but America's ability to do so may be fading.

Israel's defense establishment is now worried that the crisis with Iraq could move Syria closer to Saddam Hussein. The border between Syria and Iraq was reopened earlier this year, and diplomatic relations re-established. But, more than that, some of the other Arab nations showed signs of waffling—mainly because America's supreme dominance seems to be fraying.

America cannot be the single policeman in the world, but as the globe's economic and military superpower, it must act forcefully as the chief sheriff. No one else will.

Modern technology makes it possible for rogue nations to create general havoc in the world if unchecked. Israel's would probably be the first but not the last population to be affected by Iraq's disease-bearing missiles, if Saddam could get away with it.

Saddam, who is a crazy fox, is betting that America's ability to act as good sheriff is slipping away. He may be right. For one thing, America's military strength is not what it was during the Gulf War. American Jews should think long and hard about that. A higher percentage of Jews than of other Americans has always expressed itself as favoring defense cuts.

Along with America's military strength, our ability to hold the larger nations together to enforce civilized standards may also be faltering. Saddam has demonstrated the efficacy of the Good Thug syndrome. You know, the thug engages in some violent criminal activity, and then gets a reward by promising not to do it again—until the next time.

The modern world has shown that it is susceptible to the Good Thug syndrome, not having the will to impose discipline—especially if some profit is threatened. France—not a paragon of positive human values within living memory—has now demonstrated its interest in breaking civilized discipline in order to deal commercially with the dangerous regimes of Iraq and Iran.

In short, Saddam's dubious contribution is to continually test the ability of America to maintain its superpower status and keep the world on a civilized course. Israel could be the first and most tragic victim if we fail that test.

The American Jewish community has been intent on the immediate matter of rallying American support for Israel, especially in its conflict with the Palestinians. But American Jewry has not paid enough organized attention to whether America is losing its ability—its military dominance, resolve and strength of values—to act as an effective deterrent force against the larger enemies of Israel, and of world order.