Peace talks are better than current stalemate

Thursday, August 26, 2010 | by

After 20 months of impasse, direct talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority resume Sept. 2. However, no one is popping any champagne corks. In the history of Middle East peace negotiations, there may never have been lower expectations than now.

Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas come to the table with political impediments that weaken prospects for a fruitful dialogue.

Abbas has laid out a few demands that Netanyahu may find untenable, among them that “final status issues,” e.g., permanent borders and the Palestinian’s “right of return,” be up for discussion, and that Israel maintain its freeze on settlement construction.

Both leaders seem unable to corral their restive bases. Netanyahu’s Likud Party and others on the Israeli right will not tolerate compromise on key issues, such as the division of Jerusalem. Abbas has a similar problem with Palestinian extremists, who refuse to recognize Israel or give up armed struggle.

So both men enter talks with one hand tied behind their backs, politically. Even President Barack Obama, who pushed for and is hosting the upcoming talks, has one eye on the November election. In his mind, some movement –– any movement –– on Middle East peace would help his party at the ballot box. So the administration presses forward, even though chances of success are slim.

Then why do it? Why mount this elaborate tap dance on the world stage when everyone understands it will most likely fail?

We see several reasons. For one, talking is better than not talking. It means potentially improved personal relations between the two leaders. It means backchannel dialogue goes on among aides, and those conversations often lead to increased cooperation.

For another, the situation in the West Bank is appreciably different today than it was just a few years ago. The Palestinian Authority has done a decent job of suppressing terror activity, and the Palestinian economy has grown appreciably as a consequence. Bilateral talks may further stabilize de facto peace.

Israel, too, has something to gain, both in terms of its public perception –– which has been poor for the last 20 months ––  as well as enhanced security and infrastructure cooperation.

So like the rest of the world, we’ll keep an eye on these talks. If they fail, we won’t be surprised. On the off chance they lead to a breakthrough, we might just pop open that champagne.