The assessments used five criteria: motivation of terrorists, the presence of terror groups, the scale and frequency of past attacks, efficacy of the groups in carrying out attacks and how many attacks were thwarted by the country.
The categories also were weighted differently. For example, 40 percent was given to motivation and 10 percent to prevention.
“Another Sept. 11-style terrorist attack in the United States is highly likely,” the report states. “Networks of militant Islamist groups are less extensive in the U.S. than they are in Western Europe, but U.S.-led military action in Afghanistan and Iraq has exacerbated anti-U.S. sentiment.”
In terms of motivation, Dunn said, “The United States, as a global superpower, is considered a legitimate, high-profile target.”
But in terms of the presence of terrorist cells, the United States has relatively few, “although it is probably the most open society in the world,” he said.
Terrorists also consider American interests in other countries legitimate political targets, he said.
Dunn said the United Kingdom, tied at 10th place with Sri Lanka, is a target partly because of its close relationship with the United States; its key roles in wars on Iraq, Afghanistan and terrorism; and the presence of sophisticated militant networks.
The company, specializing in country risk, has hundreds of clients in 45 nations. Approximately 80 percent are multinational companies and banks, Dunn said.
The remaining 20 percent are mostly governments, but also universities and charities. They include foreign ministries, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.