Everyone wants to believe that the free world’s leader is going to win the war against terrorism. I remain unconvinced, though I’d prefer to be wrong.
First, this is not a war against terrorism but a war against one terrorist grouping responsible for the Sept. 11 attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. It isn’t even a war on anti-American terrorism, since all previous such acts are being forgiven in this process.
If you killed Americans or took them hostage in Lebanon — as did Hezbollah with Iranian and Syrian help — this is forgiven.
If you killed Americans in Saudi Arabia, as did Iranian-sponsored groups, this is also forgiven.
And if you blocked the investigation, making it impossible to punish the perpetrators, as did Saudi Arabia, this is forgiven.
If you helped Osama bin Laden’s forces, making possible the Sept. 11 attack — as Sudan, Yemen, and Pakistan likely did — this is forgiven.
We are seeing, in effect, a blanket amnesty on all past terrorism.
The hint is that this appeasement is temporary, and that once bin Laden’s group has been eliminated the turn will come for others. I doubt it.
For this operation is being run largely by those who conducted the Kuwait war and let Iraqi President Saddam Hussein survive to this day. At any rate, as the writer F. Scott Fitzgerald said in a different context, there are no second acts in American lives.
More likely, the scenario will be as follows:
Step one: Get bin Laden and a few dozen others.
Step two: Declare victory and go home, expressing gratitude to those who “helped” win this victory.
It should be noted that, except for the Afghan government, the United States has not criticized any other country since this crisis began.
Wait! I forgot. There is one country the United States has criticized: Israel, whose victimization by terrorism exceeds that of any other state in the world.
The problem is that current U.S. strategy encourages Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat to believe he can get away with more violence and terrorism against Jews. Consequently, though Americans don’t understand this at all and are shocked to hear it, U.S. policy is getting Jews killed by emboldening Arafat to let attacks continue, instead of using the Sept. 11 tragedy to scare him into stopping them.
Actually, though, aside from this very serious reality, Israel need not worry very much about U.S. policy right now. The American statements are cynical, rhetorical, and there is no intention of demanding more Israeli concessions in exchange for Arafat’s empty promises.
At the same time, Arafat has landed himself in a familiar situation. On the one hand, he has again gotten off easily, forgiven by Washington for rejecting two major American peace efforts (the Camp David summit and the Clinton plan) and breaking four pledges to American leaders to implement a real Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire. In addition, he’s gained immunity in regards being declared a terrorist or being held responsible for the violence he’s provoked.
On the other hand, Arafat has thrown away a chance to benefit materially from the crisis.
He could have implemented a real cease-fire and demanded Jewish-Arab negotiations be renewed at a time the United States has an incentive to pressure Israel to give up more. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s (proper) refusal to go along with this would have engendered a real crisis in U.S.-Israel relations.
But as long as Arafat lets fighting between Jews and Arabs rage and encourages selective attacks on Israel, the current situation — in which time is on Israel’s side — will continue. If and when it eliminates bin Laden, the United States won’t need Arafat any more and can return to its previous policy of doing nothing.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government has created an unnecessary and painful domestic situation as politicians and the media compete in terrorizing the American public, albeit unintentionally. Lurid stories of additional attacks, including chemical and biological ones, pour from journalists’ overactive imaginations.
People in much of America, with no good reason, are as nervous about terrorist attacks as are any Israelis.
Here are four reasons I don’t believe there will be any major attack in the United States during the next 18 months or so:
*Bin Laden’s forces have limited resources and put all their efforts into the Sept. 11 operation.
*His remaining agents are currently too busy running and hiding.
*Staging a big operation in the United States takes a long time.
*Using chemical or biological weapons is far more difficult than people are being led to believe.
Instead of scaring the American people, United States leaders should inform themselves about the Middle East, a region many of them simply don’t seem to understand.
Seven brief tips:
1. Force is respected. People may say that if you use force they will be angry with you. Don’t believe them. They will be scared of you, and respect your interests more.
2. If you don’t do anything, people will know it. Daniel Pipes of the Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum has provided a detailed list of past terrorist attacks when the United States talked tough and did nothing. These failures contributed to the Sept. 11 attack.
3. Pay attention to what’s being said in Arabic, Persian and Urdu. Everyone may love America when they’re speaking English — but watch what they say to their own people. It is often the opposite.
4. Don’t be an apologist for those who injure you. If you demand that people prove themselves friends or enemies, why be afraid to point out when they are acting like enemies?
5. Appeasement doesn’t work. All Western officials know this truth, but then, time after time, they try to please terrorists, extremists and dictators in the false belief that it will make them act properly.
6. Being liked never won anyone a foreign policy crisis. As President Theodore Roosevelt said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” To put it in Hollywood terms, there are times you need John Wayne instead of Jimmy Stewart. (I’m not sure how to translate this into contemporary casting.)
Middle Easterners don’t need to be convinced that America is nice. They perceive “nice” as meaning “weak.” Hasn’t America had enough proof of this over the past 20 years?
7. Finish the job. If you don’t get them, they will come back and get you.
Remember Saddam Hussein?
Good luck, America, and please don’t blow this one. None of us can afford it.