Peace hopes still cloudy in spite of latest truce
Friday, June 15, 2001 | byNAOMI SEGAL
JERUSALEM—Despite Israel and the Palestinian Authority agreeing to a U.S. plan for a Mideast cease-fire on Wednesday, prospects for peace remain as murky as ever.
Both sides said they are skeptical about the "working plan," as it is being called, but they did not want to reject it, knowing it could cost them points in the court of world opinion.
"I can't say I'm enthusiastic about the plan," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Wednesday. After consultations with senior security officials, however, he decided to accept it to "see whether it can lead to a reduction of violence."
On the Palestinian side, Information Minister Yasser Abed Rabbo noted pointedly that while Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat had agreed verbally to the cease-fire plan, he had not signed the document.
There were further grounds for pessimism at the Bulletin's press time Wednesday, when security officials discussed how to begin implementing the cease-fire. According to a U.S. official present at the talks, the meeting was marked by broad disagreements.
Adding to the problematic forecast, Hamas officials announced that they will not abide by the cease-fire, and another fundamentalist group, Islamic Jihad, called the deal an insult.
In the meantime, Israel is holding Arafat and the Palestinian Authority responsible for all violence committed by Palestinians, arguing that as head of the Palestinian government, Arafat bears overall responsibility for actions committed by all Palestinian factions.
Much of the deal's success appears to hinge on the Palestinian Authority's readiness to crack down on the terrorist infrastructure it has allowed to flourish alongside eight years of peace negotiations.
After a late-night session Tuesday with CIA Director George Tenet, Palestinian leaders accepted Tenet's plan for a cease-fire, with several reservations. Israel had accepted the plan slightly earlier.
Negotiations had stalled Tuesday over two main sticking points: the Palestinians' refusal to re-arrest some 20 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists they released from jail shortly after violence began last fall, and a disagreement over whether diplomatic negotiations should resume immediately. The Palestinians demand an immediate return to negotiations, while Israel wants negotiations to begin after the cease-fire is tested during a "cooling-off" period of six weeks to two months.
Palestinian officials later noted another objection, citing the plan's call for buffer zones that would separate Israeli and Palestinian forces. The officials charge that the zones would impinge on Palestinian territory, limiting the amount of land under Palestinian Authority control.
According to media reports, the proposal calls on Israel to stop attacks on Palestinian Authority targets, withdraw troops to their positions before violence began last September and refrain from reprisals that would hurt Palestinian civilians.
The proposal calls on the Palestinians to arrest terrorists, round up mortars and other illegal weapons, close explosives factories, prevent attacks from Palestinian-ruled territory and refuse haven to terrorists after attacks.
State Department officials contended that the first 48 hours after the deal would be critical.
Skeptics noted that the Palestinian Authority has pledged to take similar measures in numerous previous agreements, and then ignored its commitments.
"Arafat should have no doubt that his only option is to abandon violence and honor the cease-fire agreement," Tim Wuliger, president of AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby, said in a statement.
Palestinian officials have said they will arrest terrorists actively planning attacks but they will not re-arrest those released from jail for earlier attacks. Israel fears that the terrorists released last fall—including several of the fundamentalist organizations' top military strategists and master bomb-makers—will return to planning attacks.
Violence has lessened somewhat since Arafat called for a cease-fire after a massive terror bombing in Tel Aviv on June 1, but the calm is relative: Israel Defense Force officials noted 124 "major" Palestinian attacks—mostly gunfire, bombs or mortars—in the nine days following Arafat's gesture.
Citing Arafat's behavior in dozens of previous cease-fires over the decades, Israeli pundits predicted that he would manipulate the agreement to maintain Palestinian violence on a lower flame, avoiding terror attacks severe enough to justify a massive Israeli response but causing enough damage to prod Israel into diplomatic concessions.
For example, on Wednesday—just hours after Arafat agreed to the U.S. plan—Palestinian gunmen shot and wounded two Israelis near the Jewish settlement of Ofra in the West Bank, Israeli police said.
In another incident, a mortar shell fell on the Jewish settlement of Atzmona in the Gaza Strip, but no injuries were reported.
On Tuesday, Palestinian gunmen shot up an Israeli car traveling on a major highway between Jerusalem and the bedroom community of Ma'aleh Adumim in the West Bank. The victim, who was killed, turned out to be a Greek Orthodox monk driving with Israeli plates.
Palestinian officials complain that certain sections of Tenet's proposals go beyond the Mitchell Commission plan to end the violence and renew diplomatic negotiations. That plan was released last month by an international commission under former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell.
Israel Radio said the Palestinians sought to accept the Mitchell Commission recommendations as a package, without separating its security elements from the political elements—such as a call for a freeze on Israeli settlement-building in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The commission had called for an immediate, unconditional cease-fire to be followed by a "cooling-off" period, then a series of confidence-building measures from each side and, ultimately, a resumption of peace negotiations.
An American official said Tuesday, however, that pressure likely will be exerted to resume the diplomatic process even during the "cooling-off" period.
During a stop in Belgium on the second day of a European tour, President Bush played down expectations that both sides would demonstrate good faith. "It's still a fragile situation there," he said.
While Bush's European tour has cast a spotlight on those areas where Europe and the United States disagree—specifically missile defense and climate control—they worked in tandem to bring an end to Israeli-Palestinian violence.
Analysts say European participation was critical to getting Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat to agree to the cease-fire because the united international front gave Arafat cover for his concessions, analysts said.
"Without it, you're not going to get anywhere," said Edward Walker, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs and now president of the Middle East Institute.
The United States "opened the doors for regional consultation" after the failed Camp David talks last summer, according to Walker, a former ambassador to Israel.
"The people at Camp David realized that one of the failings was, without a broad network of support, you get caught at the last minute and have no one to turn to" for support, he added.
Both American and Israeli officials credit this week's agreement to the fact that Europe and the United States have been on the same diplomatic page in recent weeks. Specifically, they note the efforts of German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, who was meeting with Arafat when a Palestinian terrorist blew himself up during the Tel Aviv disco bombing that killed 20 Israelis.
The intense condemnation from Fischer—and the realization that Israel was preparing a massive retaliation that could threaten Arafat's regime—reportedly helped convince the Palestinian Authority head to call a cease-fire.
Each time Arafat speaks to a European leader, the United States discusses the message beforehand. Fischer is said to have been carrying an "American message" to Arafat that made it clear he would not be able to continue sponsoring terrorism without facing international consequences.
"I have no doubt that if there hadn't been U.S. and European coordination, Arafat may not have moved," one Israeli official said.
But some American Jewish leaders remain concerned about European participation in peace discussions, given Europe's traditional pro-Arab bent.
"Israel has always been wary of the E.U.'s role because they have always proved to be so biased," said Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations.
Hoenlein said the European nations' voting record in the United Nations showed their leanings. The best use of their influence is to back up American propositions that are presented to Arafat.
"If they want to play an effective role, they can bring Arafat closer to reality," he said.
Briefing the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee this week, a senior Israeli intelligence officer said Arafat had taken steps to thwart several attacks in Israel since the June 1 Tel Aviv bombing that brought the Sharon government to the verge of massive retaliation.
But the officer called the measures "superficial," saying they appeared aimed primarily at reaffirming Arafat's appearance of control over the situation in the territories, and easing international pressure on him since the Tel Aviv bombing.
In any case, the officer's assessment was dismissed by Deputy Defense Minister Dalia Rabin-Pelosoff, who said there is no evidence that the Palestinian Authority has acted to stop attacks.