Saddam’s back—and posturing to be Palestinian hero
Friday, March 2, 2001 | byMATTHEW E. BERGER
WASHINGTON—A decade after he rained Scud missiles down on Tel Aviv during the Persian Gulf War, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein again poses a threat to Israel, analysts say.
Struggling for a decade to throw off United Nations sanctions and defy Western attempts to destroy his military machine, Hussein has found the perfect vehicle in the Palestinians' Al-Aksa intifada.
Now, experts say, the Iraqi leader may use his military strength to establish himself as the staunchest ally of Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, and insert himself into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In a show of force meant to intimidate Israel, Hussein moved troops several times this winter to the border with Syria. Ranks of volunteers were formed to join a jihad against Israel.
"They need each other," Daniel Pipes, director of the Middle East Report, said of Arafat and Hussein. "Arafat strengthens Hussein's case as a leader of the Arabic cause" while the Palestinians need the financial and military resources Iraq can provide.
Lionized in the Arab world for his missile attacks on Tel Aviv during the 1991 Gulf War, Hussein threatened to fire a Scud a day on Israel. He urged Arab leaders, whom he called too cowardly to take up arms, to make room for his army to pass on the way to liberate Palestine.
Most practically, at a time when the Palestinian Authority is unable to pay salaries and its checks to families of intifada "martyrs" are bouncing, Hussein is diverting funds from his own beleaguered nation to pay $10,000 to the family of each Palestinian killed fighting Israel.
Other Arab states have failed to deliver on their pledges of financial support for the Palestinian uprising, primarily because of fears of rampant corruption in the Palestinian Authority. Iraq, however, is believed to have funneled almost $1 billion to the Palestinians.
With public support for Arafat diminishing—one recent opinion poll showed only 35 percent of Palestinians still support him—Hussein is emerging as the Palestinians' new hero.
While more moderate Arab leaders such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah dampen talk of war, Hussein—unfettered by the politesse of an international community that largely shuns him—has been trying to whip up Arab support for a broad attack to eradicate the "Zionist entity."
Hussein also is believed to have supplied the PLO with rocket-propelled grenades, anti-tank missile launchers and Russian-made anti-aircraft guns. Such grenades struck a Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip last week.
That move heightened anxiety levels in Israel. And when Hussein blamed Israel for the bombing of Iraqi radar sites by American and British forces earlier this month, some Israelis again began to purchase gas masks.
"The threat to Israel is that Saddam Hussein thinks his role in the Arab world will be advanced if he plays a role in the military aggression against Israel," said Patrick Clawson, research director for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
If Hussein takes on Israel, it will be nearly impossible for his Arab neighbors to support the U.N. sanctions, Clawson said. In such a situation, the United States may be forced to negotiate for lesser sanctions that can be enforced more easily.
While several Arab countries joined the American coalition fighting Hussein in the Gulf War, the leaders' strategic choices never filtered down to the street. There, Hussein's bombing of Israel and his decade-long defiance of America won him support.
"He gets in touch with the people on the street and represents the feelings of radicalization," said Pipes. "And the rest of the Arab leaders are left to pick up the pieces."
Hussein in recent years has been re-embraced by the Arab League, and has developed relationships with new Middle East leaders such as Syrian President Bashar Assad and Jordan's King Abdullah. Those alliances have led to the loosening of sanctions against Iraq.
Imposed at the end of the Gulf War, the U.N. sanctions rely on neighboring Arab states to block military components from reaching Iraq. With Iraq's neighbors less willing to play along in recent years, Hussein has been able to partially rebuild his forces.
David Wurmser, director of Middle East studies at the American Enterprise Institute, believes the United States will step up its enforcement role in the region and pursue a more aggressive policy against Iraq. The mid-February attacks against Iraqi radar sites may be a sign that what is left of the Gulf War alliance is ready to enforce the sanctions.
It is inevitable Iraq will take action against Israel in the next year or two, Wurmser said.
Any American behavior could provoke that—either a feeling that Iraq must retaliate for increased U.S. engagement in the region, or a lack of U.S. engagement creating a vacuum Hussein can exploit—he added.
The federal German intelligence agency published a report in recent days stating the Iraqi armament capabilities have improved considerably in the past two years. According to the German agency, the Iraqis have greatly stepped up efforts to produce chemical weapons, and could have nuclear weapons within three years.
"The current situation leaves the United States at a strategic watershed," Wurmser said. With sanctions having failed, the Bush administration will have to choose whether to go into the region and attempt to oust Hussein, or whether leave the situation alone.
Either way, Wurmser said, Iraq is likely to attack Israel.
"Israel will not be able to resolve this without some sort of conflict," he said. "Hopefully, it will happen while Saddam is going down."
But other experts say this scenario is far too dire. While Hussein may want to attack Israel, he's rational enough to realize that the disadvantages for him far outweigh any advantages, according to Shibley Telhami, a professor at the University of Maryland considered an expert on the region.
Former President Bush was criticized for not taking down Hussein during the Gulf War. Any attack against Israel would lead to U.S. intervention against Iraq and give President George W. Bush the excuse to overthrow Hussein, Telhami said.
Hussein is not suicidal enough to take the bait, the professor predicted.
"If he were to take on any adversary at this time, it would be the perfect opportunity for the United States and others who want to finish the job," Telhami said.
But Hussein may not allow the new White House the luxury of choosing its own timetable. Iraq's campaign for legitimacy has reached a plateau, and Hussein may be eager to press forward.
In the last decade, Hussein has won the public relations war in the Arab community, shifting the blame for the plight of the Iraqi people onto the United States.
With the Arab world behind him, Hussein once again may set his sights on confronting the United States.
"He would like to use a combination of his geographical place next to the largest oil reserve and his weapons of mass destruction," Pipes said. "Global ambition tinged with a hardened bitter desire for revenge. Not a pleasant combination."
But while Israelis are keeping a wary eye on Hussein and his return to the Arab fold, they do not fear an imminent attack.
Ron Ben-Yishai, military analyst for the Israeli newspaper Yediot Achronot, said Israeli experts are most concerned by the possibility that Iraq will be able to manufacture chemical and bacteriological weapons in the immediate future.
Israel shares Western intelligence services' analysis about Iraq's potential for weapons of mass destruction, but there is no immediate concern of Iraqi missile attacks like those in the Gulf War.
In fact, according to Ephraim Sneh, Israel's deputy minister of defense, the greater danger to Israel comes from Hussein's neighbor, Iran—which also is embarked on a project for weapons of mass destruction, without the inconveniences posed by U.N. sanctions.