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Message: <br /><br /> If you are having trouble reading this email, you may view this article online at: http://www.jweekly.com/14911/full/14911/mideast-memo-from-an-israeli-to-now-president-bush/ <br /><br /> <b>Mideast memo from an Israeli to now-President Bush</b> <br /> Friday, January 26, 2001 | by <p>Shlomo Avineri </p> <br /><br /><p>I know that the last thing a new president needs immediately following being sworn in is unsolicited advice. Nevertheless, since the Middle East is going to appear on your plate sooner rather than later, I am taking the liberty of trying to suggest some lessons to be learned from the debacle of the recent Israeli-Palestinian negotiations presided over by your predecessor.<br /><br /> *Don't aim too high. The major reason for the failure of the most recent negotiations, which dragged on from Camp David in July 2000 to the end of President Clinton's term, was that the former president did just that. Prime Minister Ehud Barak was convinced that an end-of-conflict agreement could be reached and quickly. He was wrong, and when you're so colossally wrong, the consequence is not only failure, but violence—like the current violence, which has wiped out any reasonable hopes for reconciliation for the foreseeable future.<br /><br /> Too many obstacles now stand in the way of any attempt to find an end-of-conflict solution. Issues like Jerusalem or refugee return strike at the heart of Israeli and Palestinian belief systems—as well as the belief systems of Jews and Muslims the world over. Hence, no one may be amenable to a mutually satisfactory solution for a long time to come.<br /><br /> The best strategy is not to aim at solving all the issues at once, but to continue moving forward, step by step. At present, the best advice to all leaders would be to stop running after the unattainable goal of a permanent solution. Instead, focus on pragmatic issues of minimizing violence—and unilateral steps by both sides, such as a unilateral Israeli disengagement, which may be followed by a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence. Don't reach for the sky, lest you end in an abyss—which is exactly where Barak is now.<br /><br /> *Don't aim too low. For years, American and European diplomats viewed the Israeli-Arab conflict purely in strategic terms and the goals of peace plans were, accordingly, very limited. Few people realized that agreements between statesmen and generals are not enough to achieve peace; you have to change the minds and hearts of people.<br /><br /> This is precisely what did not happen on the Arab side. After 20 years of peace, Egyptian textbooks still teach the same things they taught when Israel and Egypt were at war. Because of official Egyptian positions, no cultural exchange between the two countries has come about.<br /><br /> The Egyptian press—which is more or less controlled by the government, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise—is full of hatred not only toward Israel and Zionism, but also toward Jews (and the West) in general. Take a look at the historical falsehoods appearing on the Web site of the Egyptian Embassy in Washington. Major Egyptian newspapers rehash the medieval blood libel against the Jews. Palestinian textbooks, published under the auspices of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, don't have Israel on the map and only mention Israelis as oppressors and invaders.<br /><br /> In the next round of negotiations, these things must be addressed, especially as Egypt and the Palestinian Authority are recipients of generous U.S. aid.<br /><br /> *Don't overestimate the power of the United States. As your predecessor has learned, America is not omnipotent. In cases of extreme crisis, as in the Lebanon War, or if there is a political will on both sides, as after Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's visit to Jerusalem, the United States can, by judicious use of the carrot and the stick, push both sides to go the extra mile.<br /><br /> But if the political will does not exist, even a popular U.S. president will be unable to budge leaders from their entrenched positions. The late Syrian President Hafez Assad, and Arafat, taught Clinton a lesson with the Arabic equivalent of nyet. Spare yourselves similar humiliation.<br /><br /> *Flattery will get you nowhere. Few leaders were as flattered by your predecessor as Arafat—to no avail. Contrary to what many Westerners think (but never publicly say) about Arab leaders, flattery is not the key to their hearts. On the contrary—flattery is construed as a sign of weakness. So don't send your secretary of state to Damascus 20 times and don't invite Yasser Arafat to the White House more than, say, the British prime minister. They need you, and, frankly, you don't need them that much. Even Saudi bluster has its limits—which, as an oil man, you surely know.<br /><br /> *Last and not least: Israeli elections. Because of a long series of internal and diplomatic political blunders, Barak lost his parliamentary majority and was forced to call an early prime-ministerial election for Feb. 6. Don't let anyone convince you that in order to win, Barak needs a quickie agreement before Election Day. On the contrary, any agreement reached before the elections will be deeply flawed, both constitutionally and politically.<br /><br /> If, as some of us still believe, Barak will win the elections against all odds, don't let him convince you he has a magic key to a solution. He doesn't. Counsel caution and humility. Lower your sights, and maybe you can achieve some small but meaningful step forward. The same applies to Sharon.<br /><br /> There are no quick fixes in international politics, not in Bosnia, not in Kosovo and not when it comes to democratization in Russia or China. What applies to the rest of the world applies to the Middle East as well. And anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is selling you a bill of goods.</p> <p> </p>

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