washington | From the second one arrived at the Washington Conven-tion Center here, the spectacle was all-encompassing. From the anti-Israel demonstrators to the sparkling, multiscreen plenaries, for two days, this was the only show in town.
Even so, the razzmatazz at this year’s AIPAC policy conference March 3-5 couldn’t quite mute the background murmurs about the organization’s declining influence. There was Chuck Hagel’s confirmation as defense secretary, and the ongoing debate about the impact of sequestration on Israel’s defensive capabilities. When Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) complained that the Obama administration still had not delivered advanced F-35 fighter aircraft to Israel, he may have invited his audience to ponder, “All-powerful Israel lobby? What all-powerful Israel lobby?”
Away from the podium, along with speeches that restated the critical talking points of Israel advocacy to standing ovations and thunderous applause — “Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East,” “all options must remain on the table concerning Iran,” “there is no genuine Palestinian peace partner” and so forth — there was serious reconsideration of Israel’s current strategic position in the Middle East. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) summarized the stakes involved when he told the AIPAC crowd, “I have not seen the Middle East and the world in a more dangerous situation in my lifetime.”
What is distinctive about this “dangerous situation” is that it contains conflicts in which Israel is not an active participant, but rather a nervous bystander awaiting uncertain outcomes. The much-vaunted Arab Spring has taken different forms in different countries, but the common denominator is that in not a single instance has a democratic, open society emerged at the other end.
In the Arab Gulf region in particular, long-established repressive and corrupt regimes, most obviously in Saudi Arabia, remain in place. Old certainties — like the position of Turkey as a friend of both Israel and the Western powers — have been dramatically undercut, as demonstrated by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s recent assault on Zionism as a “crime against humanity.”
Most of all, there is Iran. While there was little discussion of the one conflict in which Israel is directly involved, that with the Palestinians, the AIPAC parley was dominated by anxiety that Iran is on the cusp of acquiring a nuclear weapon. Speaking at the main plenary, Vice President Joe Biden accentuated a significant, if subtle, shift in the administration’s articulation of its Iran policy. America’s goal, Biden said, “is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, period.” Then, for added effect, Biden repeated: “Prevent, not contain, prevent.”
The picture that emerged at AIPAC, then, was of an Israel facing unknown, indeterminate threats that are far greater than the known threats it has encountered in the past. As a consequence, detailed policy prescriptions were hard to come by. Absent from the policy conference were recommendations as to how Israel should proceed in negotiations with the Palestinians (because there aren’t any) or maintain its historic 1979 peace treaty with Egypt (because there’s not much it can do should that country’s Muslim Brotherhood leaders decide to tear it up).
Instead, the focus was on Israel as a front-line member of the community of democratic nations, the terrain where the cultural, political and perhaps military struggles between Western openness and Islamists strictures will be played out.
That was certainly the subtext of one of the more interesting, if sparsely attended, breakout sessions at AIPAC, on Canada’s relationship with Israel. All the Canadian politicians who spoke stressed that the reason Canada goes to bat for Israel so energetically in international forums is based on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s dictum that “we’re going to support what’s right, not what’s politically expedient.” Parliamentarian Robert Dochert pointed out that the Toronto area he represents contains 25,000 Palestinians and 500 Jews, but said his support for Israel won’t waiver.
What AIPAC this year proved is that there is considerable mileage in the values Israel shares not just with the U.S., but with other Western states like Canada. And while enlightened values in themselves don’t win wars, it’s equally true that without them, wars cannot be won.
Ben Cohen is the Shillman Analyst for JNS.org. His writings on Jewish affairs and Middle Eastern politics have been widely published.