As relations between Israel and two of its security and diplomatic bulwarks in the region — Egypt and Turkey — continue to deteriorate, the Obama administration is watching warily.
The unraveling of relations not only threatens Mideast stability and U.S. goals for the region, but it is coming as the Palestinians prepare to seek statehood recognition at the United Nations — a move that is likely to further complicate peace efforts, leave Israel even more isolated and push the Obama administration into the position of appearing to side with Israel over other allies and partners.
The Sept. 9 attack on the Israeli Embassy could have jeopardized the Egyptian-Israeli peace deal, which has been a bedrock of Mideast stability for three decades.
During the attack, a mob pulled down the embassy walls, broke into the building and rampaged for several hours while six Israeli security guards were trapped inside.
It was the latest and perhaps most worrisome in a series of events south of the border that have Israel concerned that it faces a game-changer with the new Egypt. Moreover, Israeli officials fretted over their inability to reach senior Egyptian officials quickly; instead, they had to rely on U.S. mediation.
“And the real difficulty was that even when they were finally reached,” said a senior Israeli official, “their promises for quick intervention did not materialize as quickly as the situation required.”
Egyptian commandos eventually arrived to rescue the trapped Israelis, and Israel sent jets to retrieve them and bring them home. The official said he does not expect the embassy to reopen soon but that there are contacts with Egyptian security officials.
“We are discussing how to ensure that such an attack will never happen again,” he said. “We are definitely worried. Which way Egypt is going is anybody’s guess.”
Following the assault, there was a flurry of phone calls among President Barack Obama, his top national security aides and their Israeli, Egyptian and regional counterparts. Along with the Egypt-Israel concerns, U.S. officials worry about recent tough talk from Turkey about the slide in its relations with Israel.
Obama personally reassured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of U.S. support in a Sept. 9 phone call as Egyptian protesters sacked Israel’s embassy. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke twice to Egyptian Foreign Minister Muhammed Amr to remind him of Egypt’s obligation to protect diplomatic property and personnel as well as to emphasize the importance the United States places on Egyptian-Israeli peace.
The State Department said the administration was “gratified” about statements from both Israeli and Egyptian officials seeking to ease tensions. But officials left no doubt as to the seriousness of the matter and its implications, particularly given the already precarious nature of Israel’s relationship with Turkey and the impending Palestinian bid at the U.N.
“It’s not simply about this isolated incident,” said State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. “It’s about the importance of maintaining stability and peace across the region not only day to day, week to week, but month to month.”
Following the embassy attack, the Egyptian military council running the country quickly condemned the action, calling the rioters “criminals” and saying it would launch criminal proceedings against those caught.
“The Egyptian leadership said they are committed to the peace treaty, and so are we,” Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev said. “Anyone over 50 remembers the Egyptian-Israeli wars in which thousands of people on both sides of the frontier were killed. I don’t think the people of Israel or Egypt want to go back to that.”
The 32-year-old peace treaty between Israel and Egypt is one of the cornerstones of Israel’s security doctrine. While it has resulted in few people-to-people ties, the pact made Israel’s southern border reliably quiet and freed up Israel’s military to focus on threats elsewhere.
Under Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt from Sadat’s assassination in 1981 until he was deposed early this year, Egypt established military and intelligence cooperation with Israel. Both Egypt and Israel viewed Hamas’ growing strength warily, and Egyptian security forces tried to stop the smuggling of weapons and terrorists from the Sinai into Hamas-ruled Gaza. Since Mubarak’s ouster, Israeli intelligence officials say, smuggling has dramatically increased.
While most Israeli experts don’t believe Egypt will rush to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel — Egyptian political factions, including the Muslim Brotherhood, have said they will continue the peace treaty — Israel still is worried. The embassy attack came just weeks after a terrorist attack on the border between Israel and Egypt that left eight Israelis dead.
King Abdullah II of Jordan, which is the only other Arab country besides Egypt that has a formal peace treaty with Israel, said after the embassy attack, “Jordan and the future of the Palestinian people are in better shape than Israel today. Now it is Israel that is fearful.”
Netanyahu this week also ordered Israel to speed up construction on a fence being built between Israel and the Sinai to try to stop smuggling. He said construction will be finished by September 2012.
As Obama officials made calls to both Jerusalem and Cairo, the top U.S. diplomat for the Middle East, Jeffrey Feltman, spoke with the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council and senior officials from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Feltman urged each official to counsel calm and encourage a return to a situation “where Egypt and Israel could be confident in their relationship [and] could be confident in the agreements that they have with each other,” Nuland said.
It is “important not simply to settle the immediate problem of security around the Israeli mission in Cairo, but also with regard to the region as a whole as we move into a very complicated period heading towards the [U.N. General Assembly] meetings in New York [starting Tuesday, Sept. 20],” she added.
Israeli-Turkish relations have plummeted in recent weeks as Israel has refused Turkish demands for an apology over nine deaths that occurred during Israel’s interception of a ship in the Gaza-bound flotilla last year. Turkey suspended its military ties with Israel, expelled top Israeli diplomats, pledged to campaign in support of the Palestinians’ statehood bid and vowed to send the Turkish navy to escort Gaza-bound aid ships in the future.
Despite this, Turkey recently agreed to host a NATO missile defense system aimed at countering threats from neighboring Iran, a move welcomed by the United States. n
Linda Gradstein of JTA and Desmond Butler of the Associated Press contributed to this report.