As Israel’s new government reviews its foreign policy options, Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under increasing pressure from Israel’s main ally and biggest trading partner to stay on course for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
The prime minister’s refusal so far to make an explicit commitment to the two-state approach seems to have prompted the United States to link help toward major Israeli foreign policy goals to progress on the Palestinian track.
“For Israel to get the kind of strong support it is looking for vis-à-vis Iran, it can’t stay on the sidelines with respect to the Palestinians and the peace efforts,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in testimony to a House appropriations subcommittee April 23. “They go hand in hand.”
Clinton argues that deadlock on the Palestinian track would make it much harder for the Obama administration to mobilize an alliance of moderate Arab states against Iran’s nuclear program and, conversely, that Israel’s opening of serious talks with the Palestinians would create the right conditions for moderate Arab states to join a U.S.-led campaign.
Clinton’s view is part of what seems to be a new American modus operandi worldwide: solving international and regional problems by building large coalitions for joint action.
President Barack Obama believes that a large, U.S.-led Middle East coalition both could help secure U.S. preeminence in the region and provide important support for dealing with Iran. He also is urging Israel not to undermine his coalition-building efforts by bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Obama wants Israel to give his coalition-building a boost by making goodwill gestures toward the Palestinians, such as lifting roadblocks and removing illegal outposts in the West Bank, as well as holding serious peace talks based on the two-state model.
Should dialogue with Iran bog down, Netanyahu might be ready for a deal under which Israel makes major moves against West Bank settlements if Obama promises to do whatever is necessary, including the use of force, to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu intends to complete his foreign policy review within the next few weeks before his crucial first meeting as prime minister with Obama, in Washington on May 18.
Given international pressure, Netanyahu is likely to tell Obama that he accepts the two-state model, but with two major provisos: that Israel be recognized by the Palestinians as the state of the Jewish people, and that the Palestinian state’s sovereignty be limited to ensure Israel’s basic security needs.
But on April 27, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said he will not recognize Israel as a Jewish state.
“A Jewish state, what is that supposed to mean?” Abbas asked in a speech in Ramallah. “You can call yourselves as you like, but I don’t accept it and I say so publicly.”
Abbas also said he will not resume peace talks until Israel enforces a complete settlement freeze and that Netanyahu must commit to the notion of a Palestinian state, not the “economic peace” the Israeli leader has been promoting.
“We want a state on the 1967 borders, not a centimeter more, not a centimeter less,” he said.
Netanyahu is expected to put three major requests to Obama in mid-May: that the United States take steps to prevent Iran going nuclear, that it recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people and that it back the notion of limited sovereignty for the Palestinians.
At the start of the policy review in early April, Netanyahu seemed to make Palestinian recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people a condition for resuming talks. Now, however, he says there are no preconditions, but that such recognition and acceptance by the Palestinians of limited sovereignty will be imperative if future talks are to be successful.
Given the Obama administration’s proactive, interlinked problem-solving approach, Israel and the Palestinians soon will be under strong pressure to re-engage. When they do, the degree to which Netanyahu is able to enlist American support for his vision of the Israeli-Palestinian solution will be crucial in shaping the final outcome.