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All eyes on Sunshine State again?

by ben harris, jta

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With Democrats and Republicans both picking different winners in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, it seems increasingly likely that the nation could again end up turning its collective eye to Jewish voters in South Florida.

The Sunshine State, which boasts the country's third largest Jewish population behind California and New York, is poised to provide a major momentum boost as the only state scheduled to hold a primary Jan. 29, as well as the last to vote before Super Tuesday a week later.

"Where does the Jewish vote matter?" one Democratic consultant mused. "Florida."

In addition to California and New York, Feb. 5 will feature primaries in several other states with sizable Jewish populations, including New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, Connecticut and Arizona. On Super Tuesday, 23 states with about two-thirds of the country's Jewish population will hold primaries.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who earned top favorability marks in a recent survey of American Jewish opinion, edged Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in a New Hampshire race so close that both campaigns were exuding confidence and promising to continue into the South and West, and on to the states with significant Jewish populations.

On the Republican side, the victory by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) ratcheted up the pressure on another Jewish favorite, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose hopes now hinge on the Florida primary.

Giuliani's so-called "late state" strategy, in which he neglected early states in favor of delegate-rich later states where he believes his chances are better, was being increasingly called into question this week as his numbers began to slip in Florida.

Even the truth of the strategy was challenged by ABC News, which reported that Giuliani had held more events in New Hampshire than any Republican candidate other than former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The Giuliani campaign disputed the figures.

A onetime front-runner in Florida, Giuliani placed fourth in a recent poll that pegged former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the winner. McCain, on the other hand, has been virtually absent in Florida thus far.

"He hasn't had the money to do it," said Fred Zeidman, a longtime ally of President Bush from their Texas days and a McCain supporter. "He had to bet on the early primaries to establish a position. He's just starting to make a move down there. I think that John McCain, with momentum, can make quite a showing in Florida."

In a sign that Jewish Democrats now see McCain as the man to beat, the National Jewish Democratic Council released a fact sheet that sought to portray McCain as an extremist and predicted he would turn off Jewish voters in a general election.

The NJDC sheet noted his zero rating from the pro-choice group NARAL, his support for the teaching of intelligent design and his statement a few months ago that America might be more comfortable voting for a Christian presidential candidate than a non-Christian one.

"Today's John McCain has allowed himself to be used as a mouthpiece of the far right who insists America is a Christian nation," said NJDC Executive Director Ira Forman. "He continues to oppose a woman's right to choose and has defended disastrous Bush administration policies. Given his record, he will have a very difficult time with Jewish voters in November."

Obama, meanwhile, enjoyed the support of several prominent Jewish figures in New Hampshire, including the state's first Democratic representative, Paul Hodes, and Concord businessman Gary Hirshberg. But in a state with only 14,000 Jews, those voices weren't enough to propel Obama to victory.

"I have been in politics for 40 or more years, and I have been waiting a long time to follow a candidate who actually inspires me," said Martin Gross, a Jewish New Yorker by birth and a former mayor of Concord. "And this one does."

Clinton's emphasis on experience would seem to have the potential of playing well among American Jews, who, according to a survey conducted in November by the American Jewish Committee, find her to be the most favorable candidate.

Clinton held an especially commanding lead among Jewish Democrats, with a 70 percent rating. Obama ranked third at 45 percent, slightly behind John Edwards at 48 percent.


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