jerusalem | With Syria talking peace while in the throes of a major new arms buildup, Israeli intelligence is divided again over President Bashar Assad’s intentions.
The Mossad intelligence agency argues that Assad is not interested in peace, but only in a peace process to alleviate international pressure on Syria over its meddling in Lebanon and Iraq, and its suspected implication in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Military intelligence, however, maintains that Assad is genuine and would be ready for a peace deal with Israel in exchange for the strategic Golan Heights captured by Israel in 1967.
For now, Assad is unlikely to be put to the test. The United States strongly opposes any Israeli contact with Syria on the grounds that even exploratory talks would help get Assad off the hook internationally. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agrees and is resisting domestic pressure to engage the Syrians.
Intelligence boss Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin argues that the possibility of peace with Syria is strategically far too important for Israel to ignore, that it could weaken Syria’s ties with Iran and put pressure on the Palestinians to cut a deal with Israel.
Moreover, the very fact of talks with Damascus would lessen border tensions, and if the Syrians knew that at the end of the day they would get back the Golan, there would be a real chance for peace.
Mossad Chief Meir Dagan argues that Assad only wants negotiations for tactical reasons, on the assumption that talks with Israel would ease Western pressure on Damascus, especially from France over the Hariri investigation and the United States over Syrian support for insurgents in Iraq. In the Mossad chief’s view, the Syrians have no intention of making peace with Israel, and Israel shouldn’t play into their hands.
Despite the accelerated Syrian arms buildup and the absence of talks, both Yadlin and Dagan estimate that the probability of war with Syria this year is low. In presenting the intelligence estimate to the full Cabinet on Sunday, Feb. 25, both men predicted that Syria would not initiate war against Israel in 2007, but that it would respond if it felt threatened.
With generous funding from Iran, Syria is buying thousands of sophisticated anti-tank weapons from Russia, upgrading its navy and deploying advanced Scud-D missiles with a range capable of covering virtually every point in Israel. The Syrians also recently successfully test-launched a Scud-D missile and reportedly have been supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon with medium-range rockets with cluster-bomb warheads.
Analysts give a number of reasons for the Syrian arms buildup: In the wake of Israel’s 34-day war against Hezbollah in the summer, a sense that the Israeli home front is vulnerable to missile attack and Israeli armor to Russian-made anti-tank weapons; fear that if another war between Israel and Hezbollah breaks out in the North, Israel might target Damascus; a desire to use the threat of war to persuade Israel to talk peace; and a desire to be in a position to use force to change Middle East realities.