For 34 days we sat transfixed watching and listening as a battle unfolded that seemed to arise with little warning. Now that the first round has passed, the question is, what have we learned?
I believe we have learned nine critical lessons.
Iran is a threat not only because of its nuclear ambitions. Iran is a major regional power, determined to destroy Israel. Iran is willing to actually arm, support, and financially aid those who will join in that quest.
The United Nations is impotent. The U.N. force that is to be placed in Lebanon has clearly stated that it will not disarm Hezbollah. The U.N. force has made it clear that it will not engage in combat. It will have no real enforcement power. It is evident that the United Nations will not prevent Iran and Syria from rearming and strengthening Hezbollah.
Iran and Syria will continue their support of Hezbollah. They know that Hezbollah will be their active proxy in the continuing battle against Israel.
Lebanon is a victim, not an aggressor in this battle. The government of Lebanon is a fiction. It does not control its own territory and has no army that can enforce a policy in southern Lebanon.
Despite taking a severe pounding during the conflict, Hezbollah won a major victory in its struggle against Israel. Its leaders survived the battle. It inflicted damage on Israel and has lived to fight another day. It is now in the forefront of the efforts to rebuild Lebanon and has gained great strength and support within the rank and file of Lebanon’s Muslim population. It can be said that Hezbollah is better off today than it was before hostilities began.
There are no defensible borders for Israel in the traditional sense of the word. Missiles fired from Lebanon or Gaza can hit Israel’s major population centers with relative impunity. Even a massive reaction by the IDF cannot prevent rockets from falling. The real danger of a biological, chemical or nuclear hit on Israel is not a distant or far-fetched possibility.
In light of that reality, Iran’s nuclear threat is far more direct. A missile need not fly from Iran with its deadly cargo. It can be fired from Lebanon or Gaza with devastating effects.
The threat of Hamas, based in Gaza, while pushed off the front pages by events in Lebanon and Israel, is still a clear and present danger. With the backing of Iran and Syria, more will be heard from Hamas.
The belief that land for peace will bring peace has been shattered. Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon and Gaza did not make Israel more secure or bring peace closer. In fact, the contrary is true. The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan hang by the thread of a belief that the governments of Egypt and Jordan will survive the rising tide of the pan-Islamic movement. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and in Jordan, coupled with the rising strength of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic extremists, raise real questions about the future of the governments of these two nations. We must never forget that it is the governments that have peace treaties with Israel. Is there any doubt that if these governments are swept away in a rising tide of militant Islam, then these peace treaties will be consigned to the dustbin of history?
One question continues to haunt me in the aftermath of the recent turmoil. Is the Middle East more likely to achieve peace today than it was two months ago? The answer clearly is no.
In the days ahead we will face many difficult times. It is important that we face these stark realities without hesitation and with determination. No less than the security of Israel and the future of civilization as we know it hang in the balance. Golda Meir once reflected that the word for miracle in Hebrew is “ness.” When asked if she was an optimist or a pessimist, Golda responded “I live in the Middle East, I am a nessismist.” Despite difficult days ahead, like Golda I believe with perfect faith that in the end, the nessimists will triumph and evil will be vanquished. There is no alternative.
John Rothmann is a KGO Radio talk-show host, a political analyst in San Francisco and former president of the Zionist Organization of America.