In Israel and Lebanon, the tanks and rocket launchers have fallen silent. The shelter-weary on both sides have come out into the sunlight. So why aren’t the bells of peace pealing across the land?
Because if ever there was a fragile peace, this is it.
By many analyses, the U.N.-brokered cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah froze the battlefield in a manner disadvantageous to Israel. Despite weeks of bombing, destruction of infrastructure and the death of 500 terrorists, Hezbollah remained defiant, firing rockets up to the last minute.
A deal announced this week between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government stated that the terrorist organization need not disarm — merely refrain from displaying weapons in public. That directly contradicts the U.N. resolution, which clearly states that Hezbollah must disarm.
Not that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gives a damn.
Since 1948, no enemy of Israel has withstood the might of the Israel Defense Forces as did Hezbollah. That, in the mind of the Arab world, not only gives Hezbollah bragging rights but clearly changes the view of Israel as militarily all-powerful. That notion will only embolden Israel’s enemies, particularly the Palestinians, who may be wishing Iran would slip them a Katyusha or two in the near future.
And maybe Iran will.
Adding to the perception problem, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has come under strong criticism from across the Israeli political spectrum for his management of the war. The criticism varies. He was too slow to react to Hezbollah. Too quick. Too harsh. Too mild.
However history judges his performance, in the short term it’s hard to see him as anything other than endangered. Even though Israel severely damaged Hezbollah’s ability to make war, Olmert did not destroy the organization as promised, and for that, he may pay with his job. Some in the military have already been relieved of command. And let us not forget the 116 Israeli soldiers who lost their lives, as well as three who remain hostages.
Add it all up, and this is not the outcome Israel and its supporters would have liked. And only a fool would believe we’ve seen the last of the fighting.
But we have learned never to bet against Israel. Its people are smart, adaptable and uncanny when it comes to survival. If mistakes occurred in the prosecution of the war, no doubt lessons will be learned and changes made for the future.
So let Hezbollah crow of their great “victory.” In time they will come to see just how hollow it really was.