jerusalem | Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is on a collision course with what had been his most loyal coalition partner, the Shinui Party, raising prospects of early elections that could postpone an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Sharon has been walking a political tightrope since he lost his parliamentary majority several months ago, with hard-liners bolting over his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and four West Bank settlements in 2005.
Sharon’s coalition was in tatters. He immediately fired Shinui Party ministers midweek as his 2005 state budget was defeated on first reading by a 69-43 vote.
The opposition Labor Party — which until now had provided a parliamentary safety net to Sharon because it supports his plan of “disengagement” from the Palestinians — voted against the 2005 budget. Labor opposes the budget because of cuts in social spending.
In trying to cobble together the necessary parliamentary majority, Sharon on Nov. 28 agreed to transfer $98 million to two religious parties in exchange for their support in the budget vote.
The move enraged the secular-rights Shinui, which proceeded against the budget. With Shinui forced out of the coalition, Sharon was left with the support of only 40 legislators in the 120-member parliament. Shinui’s leader, Yosef “Tommy” Lapid, was removed from his position as Justice Minister. The dismissal of other ministers left open cabinet positions in charge of religious affairs, citzenship and other key areas.
If the budget doesn’t pass by March 31, Sharon’s government automatically falls and elections would have to be held within three months. The Gaza pullout is set to begin in July.
Elections are currently scheduled for November 2006.
Officials close to the prime minister said Sharon wants to bring the fervently religious Shas Party and Labor into his government, a coalition that would be acceptable to most members of Likud.
During a Labor Party meeting this week, debate over whether the party should hold early primaries erupted into chaos as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak stormed the stage in a dramatic start to his attempt at a political comeback. Barak opposes the early primaries for party leadership because he will not have very much time to prepare for elections so close at hand.
Senior Labor members assess that if the party decides to hold an early primary, all chances of joining a unity government with the Likud will be destroyed.
“However you look at it, Sharon’s government is in its final death throes. Even if Sharon maneuvers out of this crisis, the next few months will not be smooth sailing,” political analyst Yossi Verter wrote in the Ha’aretz newspaper.
Sharon faced three votes of no-confidence in parliament over his government’s economic policies, but was expected to be saved from defeat by the dovish Yahad Party, which said a Gaza withdrawal was the top priority.
“We will support disengagement, we will not bring down the government,” Yahad lawmaker Avshalom Vilan told Israel Radio. “In the diplomatic arena we will give the government freedom of movement and in the area of the budget we will vote against it.”
If an early election is called, Sharon would have to face off against his main Likud rival — Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — in a primary. Sharon might lose such a contest since many Likud members oppose the Gaza plan.