While Labor seeks leverage, Sharon scolds and sweet talks Likud

jerusalem | A week ago, it seemed like a mere formality: At a time of his choosing, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would add the Labor Party to his tottering coalition, gaining the political muscle to withdraw Israeli troops and citizens from the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank.

But stern opposition in Sharon's own Likud Party, and rumblings of discontent in Labor, are complicating the scenario.

Compounding the confusion, Sharon has been hinting that he has other coalition options. And Labor leaders are intimating that they may withdraw the parliamentary safety net they promised Sharon — the pledge they made not to topple what has become a minority government on the understanding that they might soon join it. At least, they supported its main diplomatic initiative.

In both cases, the tough talk may be merely tactics designed to influence the price in policies and portfolios that Labor can exact for joining the coalition. But such jockeying for position can assume a momentum of its own, and some pundits now say the projected alliance could fail to materialize.

In the balance could hang the fate of the Israeli withdrawal, a step that has garnered international support and that, ironically, originated in many ways in the Labor Party.

Sharon now has four coalition alternatives:

• Persist with his present minority coalition of 59 legislators in the 120-member Knesset and hope that the fractured opposition won't be able to agree on an alternative candidate for prime minister, which would be necessary to bring the government down without forcing new elections;

• Bring in two breakaway Knesset members, David Tal of the One Nation workers' party and Michael Nudelman of the right-wing National Union bloc, to secure a shaky 61-seat majority;

• Convince the five legislators from the fervently religious United Torah Judaism bloc to support the government from outside the coalition; or

• Bring in Labor for a solid plurality of more than 70 and, more importantly, a guaranteed majority in the Cabinet for settlement evacuation, which none of the other options provides.

Clearly, the Labor option is by far the most attractive for Sharon, though Labor likely will want to modify the reformist economic policies that have been one of the Sharon government's proudest achievements to date.

The other alternatives can keep Sharon's government afloat for several months, but only a national unity government with Labor could create the political ambiance to implement his controversial disengagement policy.

The snag is that many in Sharon's Likud faction are adamantly opposed to the idea.

More than 20 Likud legislators are threatening to vote against any coalition with Labor. Sharon therefore has been sweet-talking individual Likud legislators, winning some of the dissidents over to his side.

But that's only half the battle. Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, two major Likud power brokers, remain strongly opposed to a coalition with Labor.

The conventional wisdom is that Labor would demand one of the three top portfolios — defense, foreign affairs or finance. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz has been assured he won't have to give up his portfolio, which leaves Netanyahu or Shalom.

On Sunday, June 20, Netanyahu opened up a new front. Adding Labor to the government, he declared, would destroy his hard-won achievements in pulling the Israeli economy out of a deep recession and effecting free-market reforms.

Moreover, he added, it wasn't worth making political, economic or other concessions to woo Labor because they would "come crawling anyway. They are the world champions at crawling."

Netanyahu's contemptuous tone drew an angry response from Labor leader Shimon Peres. He accused the finance minister of conducting a policy of "piggish capitalism" that had created "6,000 millionaires in Israel and 6 million beggars."

Labor's Shalom Simchon, a former Cabinet minister, also weighed in, saying Labor now would insist on getting the Finance Ministry, and arguing that both economic growth and social justice had advanced more under Labor governments.

Sharon came down on the side of his potential coalition partners. In a warning to Netanyahu to stop rocking the boat, he said he would not support a national budget for 2005 that fails to assist the needy.

But Netanyahu's attack, and the fact that Sharon has yet to formally invite Labor to coalition talks, have prompted second thoughts in Labor about the safety net it promised Sharon.




Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Report.