One of the most divisive figures in Israeli politics is looking to get his old job back, and if he succeeds it could mean the end of a dozen years of smooth U.S.-Israel relations that were interrupted only by his earlier rocky tenure as prime minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu is remembered by many here for his alliance with former Speaker Newt Gingrich and congressional Republicans in a campaign to block the peace policies of the men who preceded and succeeded him: Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak.
Netanyahu’s comeback bid occurs at a time when U.S.-Israel relations are going very well, with a president and prime minister who are able to resolve their differences amiably.
Israeli diplomats, Jewish activists and political observers fear that could change if Netanyahu, the current finance minister, succeeds in replacing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who for all his toughness has displayed a remarkable ability to work well with President Bush.
No Israeli leader was as adept at playing partisan American politics, nor as disruptive as the American-educated Netanyahu, who understood the politics of divided government. Even before becoming prime minister, he joined forces with Gingrich against common enemies: then-President Bill Clinton, Rabin and the Oslo peace process. Their goal was to make sure all three failed.
Now, five years after losing in a landslide, Netanyahu is once again sowing seeds of political and diplomatic discord.
Sharon’s government survives largely because the opposition Labor Party promised him a safety net to support the Gaza disengagement plan, which the Bush administration strongly backs.
Netanyahu has given the plan lukewarm support at best, demanding concessions for his vote that threaten to put the prime minister into conflict with Washington. One of those demands is the completion of the security fence around the West Bank city of Ariel, something Washington says violates a commitment Sharon gave to Bush to defer that segment.
But last week, the Israeli government began preparations for building that portion. In extracting that promise in exchange for his vote, Netanyahu had to be aware that it would create problems for Sharon with Bush, as it did.
Netanyahu has maintained his close relations with admirers in the American Jewish community, and he remains an icon among the Christian right, particularly those who think Sharon has become a naive dove in his old age.
They are part of the political base he depended on the last time, but much has changed in the five years since he was defeated for re-election.
If Bush is re-elected along with a Republican-led Congress, Netanyahu will not be able to play the divide-and-conquer-game he and Gingrich used to undercut Clinton’s peace policies. Even Rep. Tom DeLay (Texas), the House GOP leader who sounds more hard-line than Netanyahu, is not going to try to “out Israel” Bush.
The calculations will be different with a John Kerry administration. But without a new Palestinian leadership ready to make peace, Kerry will likely limit his peacemaking efforts, depriving Netanyahu of the handy wedge issue he exploited against Clinton.
Many congressional Democrats also remember Netanyahu as Gingrich’s ally in efforts to undermine Rabin and Clinton, a memory that could undercut Israel’s broad bipartisan support.
A contributing factor in Netanyahu’s 1999 defeat was his friction with Clinton, who was immensely popular in Israel. As Yitzhak Shamir proved earlier, an inability to manage relations with Washington (even with an unfriendly president) can cost a premier his job.
Netanyahu’s confrontational style won’t work with Bush or Kerry. And his alliance with some of the most right-wing figures in Congress will cause concern among mainstream Jews who see DeLay and his conservative shock troops as bitter adversaries on the domestic front.
Netanyahu faces a dilemma in Israeli politics. Unlike Sharon, he has cultivated close relations with the right-wing nationalists and the fervently religious, but he can’t afford to be so closely identified with them that he alienates the dominant center.
Recent polls show Israeli voters strongly prefer a coalition of the center-right Likud, centrist Shinui and center-left Labor. Sharon is flirting with bringing Labor into his government, and Netanyahu is adamantly opposed.
He has demanded that Labor endorse his economic policies, which opposition leader Peres rejects, calling them “greedy capitalism.” As his price for joining Sharon’s government, Peres wants a new economic policy and a new finance minister: himself. Peres, who was foreign minister in Sharon’s first government, also is demanding that the prime minister commit to expanding the disengagement plan.
Labor already has backed Sharon by blocking several no-confidence votes — including one in which Netanyahu took a walk — but with Knesset about to leave on summer break until after the High Holy Days, Sharon probably won’t have to decide on reshuffling his government before mid-October.
Sharon’s disengagement plan, which Netanyahu has worked to impede if not block, enjoys strong support within the Likud and even more so in the Israeli public at large.
Netanyahu is a skillful but polarizing politician. He runs behind Sharon in polls but ahead of most other candidates for Likud leadership, including Sharon’s preferred heir, Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
It’s no secret that Sharon doesn’t like or trust Netanyahu and considers him a greater threat to his job than the opposition. Several recent polls show the Israeli public also considers Netanyahu untrustworthy, and they agree with Sharon that Netanyahu’s opposition to the Gaza disengagement was inspired more by political and personal ambitions than ideology.
One of his admirers, Uri Dan, has written: “Netanyahu is in a hurry [to get Sharon’s job] and does not understand that his personal and intra-party maneuvering is pushing him farther away from that seat.”
That, along with the potential threat to relations with Washington he represents, may thwart Netanyahu’s plan to be Israel’s Comeback Kid.
Douglas M. Bloomfield is a Washington, D.C.-based political consultant who was formerly chief legislative lobbyist for AIPAC.