JERUSALEM — This week’s massive suicide bombing on a Jerusalem bus has pushed the Israeli-Palestinian peace process to the breaking point.
Over the next few weeks, Israeli officials predict the cease-fire that Palestinian terrorist groups declared in late June — which the terrorists say allows for occasional bombings such as Tuesday’s — will either stabilize or collapse.
In addition, the planned hand over of more West Bank cities to Palestinian control will be a crucial — and perhaps final — test for Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas’ government, Israeli officials say.
Israel reacted to Tuesday’s bombing, which killed at least 20 people and wounded more than 100, by freezing the hand over and engaging in limited military strikes against Palestinians presumed to be responsible for the blast. However, assuming there are no more attacks in coming days, senior Israeli officials still believe the transfer should proceed.
First, though, Abbas must show that he genuinely intends to crack down on the fundamentalist Hamas and Islamic Jihad militias responsible for a number of recent attacks, the officials said. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the carnage in Jerusalem.
In agreeing late last week to hand over Jericho, Kalkilya, Ramallah and Tulkarm, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon hoped the Palestinian Authority would seize the opportunity to show that it can prevent terrorism from areas it controls, Sharon aides say.
But, they make clear, if the experiment fails, Israel will retake the cities — a move that could topple the Palestinian Authority and spell the end of the “road map” peace plan.
Tuesday’s bombing showed the dangers to Israel of the Palestinian strategy. The Palestinians say that as long as the groups aren’t actually carrying out terror attacks, there’s no reason to crack down on them. But Israel has warned that as long as the groups are allowed to exist and rearm, they can quickly switch from passive to active mode — with devastating results.
Israel initially withheld transfer of the cities as a means of pressuring the Palestinians to crack down on the terrorists.
But it didn’t work: Since they didn’t control the cities, the Palestinians argued, they couldn’t be expected to stop terrorism emanating from them.
Moreover, holding on to the cities opened Israel to accusations that it wasn’t giving enough to induce the Palestinians to fulfill their road map obligations.
So, in a reversal of policy, Sharon hoped to put the burden of proof back on the Palestinians: They would have to prevent terror or risk being blamed for the failure of the hudna, an Arabic term for cease-fire that has connotations of rearming for future confrontation.
“Once they are given control, they will be formally responsible for what happens in the cities and be in a position to do something about it,” explained Gideon Ezra, a government minister close to Sharon. “There will be no more excuses.”
The hand over of the Palestinian cities is widely seen in Israel as a last-ditch attempt to save the cease-fire, which has been crumbling under Palestinian suicide bombings and Israeli counter-terrorism actions.
Still, Ezra, a former deputy director of the Shin Bet security service, said — before Tuesday’s deadly suicide bombing in Jerusalem — that the Israeli defense establishment is reasonably confident the Palestinian Authority will pass the test and help stabilize the situation.
“Take Bethlehem,” he says. “Since we handed it over in early July, there has not been a single terror attack from that city.”
Handing over more cities is a calculated risk, he said, but one worth taking.