Now that Ariel Sharon’s government has decided to endorse President Bush’s “road map,” what’s next? Will terrorism cease tomorrow? Will the incitement halt? Will Israel be forced to dismantle settlements immediately?
The answer is no. Little, if anything, changes immediately.
Which is exactly the argument Sharon’s camp used to drum up support for the plan among his Cabinet: Vote “yes,” because in practical terms, it doesn’t really mean a whole lot — at least not yet. If Sharon had perceived that the “road map” actually had a chance of succeeding, the vote likely would have been “no.”
Crunch time won’t come until the Palestinian Authority takes steps to stop terrorism. If the world begins to witness the arrests of Hamas members on the streets of Gaza City and the collection and destruction of Islamic Jihad guns and bombs, then Israel will be asked to reciprocate with real action.
Observers say Sharon took the path of least resistance by avoiding a crisis with the United States now, when it is not clear whether the Palestinian Authority will ever actually make the arrests or confiscate the arms.
Basically, all that Israel’s decision means is that, for the time being, Sharon has managed to shake a monkey off his back.
In a 12-7 vote Sunday — with four abstentions, one of them from former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — Sharon’s government voted to accept the “steps set out in the road map” for a phased ending of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Israeli Cabinet qualified its approval by attaching 14 reservations to the plan. It also voted to reject the Palestinian demand for a “right of return” for refugees from Israel’s 1948 War of Independence and their descendants — several million people in all — to their former homes inside Israel.
Most of the Cabinet’s reservations relate to implementation. Israel wants to stiffen the security demands on the Palestinians, delay a settlement freeze until the Palestinians start fighting terror in earnest and ensure that implementation will be monitored only by the United States — not by the European Union, United Nations and Russia, the other bodies that helped the United States draft the plan.
Still, Israel’s acceptance was enough for officials to continue preparations for next Wednesday’s planned summit in Jordan with Bush, Sharon and his Palestinian Authority counterpart, Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas.
As the Israeli Cabinet had expected, it didn’t take Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat very long to slow down whatever momentum had been started by the Cabinet’s actions.
A fresh power struggle developed Tuesday between Abbas and Arafat, with Arafat saying he, not the Palestinian prime minister, is the one who has authority to negotiate matters. As a result, plans for a second meeting this past Wednesday between Sharon and Abbas were delayed.
Up until this past weekend, it was Sharon being cast as the man who wanted to hold up the peace.
The Palestinian Authority had voted the magic “yes” to the road map virtually immediately after Bush presented it a few weeks ago. In the ensuing weeks, the Palestinian Authority, in the eyes of the world, or at least in the eyes of some U.S. editorial writers, had been portrayed as the side willing to move forward.
Abbas said he couldn’t do anything until Israel endorses the plan. The Israeli Cabinet, by approving the plan on Sunday, has effectively shouted at Abbas, “Your move.”
The problem with this game is that at some point Israel may itself run out of moves. If Israel means “no,” at some point it is going to have to say “no,” and not necessarily wait for the Palestinians to fumble.
What happens if Arafat and company don’t fumble?
Is Israel willing to pay the price that “yes” entails — a settlement freeze and the dismantlement of settlements created since March 2001?
Likud minister Natan Sharansky, who voted against the road map, commented at the Cabinet meeting that Israel erred in not objecting at the very outset of the road map process that the plan was at odds with Bush’s own vision.
Instead, Israel cooperated, not wanting to be cast as the naysayer.
Israel went along in September, when the road map made its first appearance, and then again in December, when the final draft was drawn up. If Israel had said “no,” according to Sharansky’s logic, the government would not be in the situation it is in today, saying “yes” but seeming to mean “no.”
Although Israel had reservations about the road map, it played the game believing that the Palestinians would somehow torpedo the process, or that the White House would override the State Department and shelve the plan, or that the war in Iraq would somehow change all parameters.
But none of this happened. Diplomatic processes, once they are set in motion, gain momentum and often take on a life of their own.
And as the momentum is gained, as the process picks up more steam, it becomes all the more difficult to stand in its way. Sunday’s Cabinet meeting was a perfect example.
After insisting for two years that he would not negotiate under fire, Sharon in fact has restarted the diplomatic process while Palestinian terrorism is continuing. In addition, the road map allows for unprecedented international involvement in the process, even by parties such as the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, that Israel feels are biased in favor of the Palestinians.
In addition, one of the conditions for restarting the diplomatic process was to be the removal of Arafat, which Bush called for in his landmark policy speech last June 24. While Abbas was appointed prime minister as a way of easing Arafat aside, Arafat retains control over most of the Palestinian security services and much of the Palestinian Authority government — which Israel says he is using to foment terrorism.
It also is not clear the extent to which the plan will be performance-based. After the experience of the Oslo accords, Israel insists that the sides proceed from stage to stage of the road map only after each has fulfilled its commitments.
The Palestinians were wary of Israel’s road map vote, arguing that inclusion of the reservations robbed the initiative of its content. The Palestinians have accepted the road map as is, and they insist that Israel do so as well.
“We are not talking about gestures, but rather about a policy that Sharon will have to implement, article by article, with the same seriousness that he wants us to fight terror,” one Palestinian Authority Cabinet minister said.