LOS ANGELES –The organizers of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks completely miscalculated the international fallout from their acts, according to a leading Israeli expert.
Describing international politics as “the realm of unintended consequences,” Shai Feldman, director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, cited three examples to illustrate the rule:
For one, major global tensions have actually declined since Sept. 11, with the United States improving its relations with Russia, China and European nations.
In addition, the belief that the Arab masses would rise against the United States after it took on the Taliban has been proven wrong. “In the first week there were five demonstrations in the Arab street, the next week three, and then it dwindled to zero,” said Feldman.
Moreover, Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat believed that because the United States was enlisting Arab allies in its fight against terror, that would result in a more favorable U.S. policy toward him.
“Quite the opposite has happened and Arafat now faces the moment of truth,” said Feldman.
Feldman spoke Sunday at a UCLA leadership conference on “Terror: From the Holy Land to the Homeland.” He also spoke Tuesday at the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco.
At the UCLA meeting, more than a dozen experts spoke, drawn from the co-sponsoring Jaffee Center, a think tank on Middle East and international security affairs at Tel Aviv University, and the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations. Among them were Itamar Rabinovich, Israel’s former peace negotiator and ambassador to the United States.
Israel at this point can draw little solace from the Palestinians’ strategic catastrophe, said Feldman, a point emphasized by Rabinovich, who is now president of Tel Aviv University.
Asked in an interview to preview the Middle East picture a year from now, Rabinovich was certain that “there has to be a change in paths; the present situation simply cannot continue.” Either the suicide attacks and other terror must end, he said, or the Palestinian Authority, under Arafat’s leadership, will cease to exist.
Rabinovich urged a “carrot and stick” approach toward Arafat, with the stick consisting of Washington reimposing the “terrorist” classification borne by the PLO prior to the 1993 White House handshake between the Palestinian leader and Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin.
The “carrot” would be an Israeli-Palestinian interim agreement, of two to three years, after which negotiations for a final-status agreement could be undertaken.
In a luncheon address, Professor Steven Spiegel, associate director of the UCLA Burkle Center, proposed a Coalition of Victims of Terrorism, in which affected cities and countries would pool their information and counter measures.
For instance, in his frequent plane flights, Spiegel asked passengers and officials, “Would you feel safer if there were an Israeli adviser at your airport?” and in every case the answer was “yes.”