Support for Israel soars, but will it last?

NEW YORK -- Since the Sept. 11 terror attacks on the United States, Israelis and their American Jewish supporters have tried to impress upon Washington that "your war is our war." But until this week, they've had little success, although some observers wonder whether this honeymoon will last after the latest violence becomes a memory. The bloodiest terrorist attacks in Israel in the post-Sept. 11 world -- assaults that specifically targeted teenagers -- seem finally to have produced a bounce in sympathy for Israel from both the U.S. administration and the American public.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan also offered sympathy and condolences, as did the European Union. Yet Washington's response, especially, was taken as a sign of a change of heart.

For the first time after a major attack in Israel, the Bush administration refrained from using the "r" word -- restraint -- and implicitly gave Israel the green light to respond as it saw fit to the weekend suicide bombings in Jerusalem and Haifa that killed at least 25 and wounded nearly 200.

"We're not about to tell Mr. Sharon what he should do," Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sunday, shortly after the Hamas attacks. He did add, however, that Israel should consider the consequences of its actions.

On Tuesday, Powell was more explicit. Sharon should remember, he said, "that there will be a tomorrow and a day after tomorrow, and we have to try to get back to a process that will lead to a cease-fire and to negotiations."

But on Monday, Israel had already begun attacking Palestinian Authority positions in well-coordinated retaliation efforts.

In one action, the Israeli army destroyed runways at the Gaza airport late Monday night. The bulldozing limited Arafat's ability to travel, and damaged a symbol of Palestinian nationalism.

The bombardment continued through Tuesday, when, in one such assault, Israel hit targets in the West Bank city of Ramallah, some 50 yards from Arafat's offices.

Israeli helicopters also fired at least nine missiles at targets near Arafat's headquarters in Gaza City. The missiles hit the barracks of Arafat's presidential guard and also destroyed several of Arafat's personal helicopters, as well as a helipad there.

A spokesman for Sharon, Ra'anan Gissin, told CNN that Arafat himself was not targeted, but that the strikes were intended to send Arafat a warning.

As of press time Wednesday, however, the attacks stopped -- at least temporarily -- to give Arafat an opportunity to round-up and arrest terrorists. The window of time was coordinated by the dovish Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, whose colleagues mostly think Arafat will not live up to the Israeli demand.

Additionally, some observers wondered how long it would take before the U.S. green light again turns red, and whether Israel would really be released from Washington's constraints while the United States pursues its own war on terrorism in Afghanistan.

Much hinges on who triumphs in an apparent power struggle between the hawkish U.S. Defense Department, led by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, and the more peaceful State Department, symbolized by Powell and staffed by career Arabists.

Some are suggesting that Bush declare victory in this stage of the war on terror, considering that the Taliban has collapsed and Osama bin Laden is on the run.

Wolfowitz is reportedly pressing to advance to "Stage Two" of the struggle, which could focus on ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and ending his weapons development programs. Syria, Sudan, Somalia and Colombia also are mentioned as potential targets.

Advocates for Israel say Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad should be among the next groups targeted.

"The administration is just in fits over what to do next," said Rachel Bronson, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. "The definition of this war on terrorism is really up for grabs."

How Israel figures in later stages of the effort remains unclear.

As the dust settled after Sept. 11, Israel advocates initially figured America would now grasp the Israeli reality.

But that hope quickly faded as Americans asked, "Why do they hate us?" A number of U.S. pundits -- and most spokesmen for Arab- and Muslim-American groups -- blamed much of the anti-American animus on Washington's allegedly unwavering support for Israel against the Palestinians.

Israel was marginalized as Washington courted the Arab world for its coalition against bin Laden and his Al Qaida terror network. Vital links in the coalition, such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, went so far as to accuse the Jewish state of being a "terrorist" regime.

President Bush stressed that the U.S. campaign would target only those groups with "global reach," disappointing many Jewish observers who hoped the dragnet would include Hamas and others.

But even with the Bush administration softening its approach to Israel, presumably there are limits to what Washington will tolerate. If Sharon heeds his right wing and moves to topple Arafat, American sympathy is likely to evaporate.

"This talk of not having a partner in Arafat is counterproductive, because the administration looks at Arafat as the only one to work with," Bronson said.

Moreover, Washington's basic tendency toward "even-handedness" is not likely to change.

Powell may hope that the Hamas attacks and the large death toll are just an aberration, a blip that does not dramatically affect American peacemaking efforts or its war in Afghanistan, said Daniel Pipes, director of the Middle East Forum.

Powell's statements this week that showed greater understanding for Israel are "not a shift, but a concession," Pipes said.

That concession was in place on Wednesday, when a 43-year-old suicide bomber crossed a Jerusalem street toward the David Citadel hotel, formerly the Hilton, and prematurely detonated the nail- and metal-studded bomb strapped to his body.

The terrorist was targeting Israeli government ministers, according to Islamic Jihad, which claimed responsibility for the attack. Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert, Public Security Minister Uzi Landau and Religious Affairs Minister Asher Ohana were at the hotel at the time of the attack, Israel Radio reported. Eleven people were wounded by flying glass and shrapnel, and a police spokesman said the blast severed the bomber's head and blew it into an unoccupied guest room on the first floor of the hotel.

"The outrage is so evident," Pipes said, that Powell "can't just tell Israel to cool it, absorb it and move on...[he] cannot apply his outlook on the world at this time"

Regardless, Pipes said, too much is made of U.S. pressure on Israel, adding that both countries make decisions based primarily on their national interests, rather than pressure.

After the latest attacks, though, Sharon's pledge that Israel will deal with the Palestinian Authority as America is dealing with the Taliban -- because both are regimes that harbor terrorists -- may sound increasingly reasonable to others in Washington.

"They recognize more and more that this terrorism is an interlocking network, and killing Osama won't be enough," said Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. "Terrorism must be fought in absolutes."

To date, Israel's role in the U.S.-led war on terror primarily has been to provide intelligence. In the future, Hoenlein said, Washington may not mind if Israel takes on the Hamas "portfolio."

"The fact is, Israel is important to the war on terrorism, because every country that fights terrorism within its borders or outside its borders is taking a chink out of the armor of Islamic extremism," Hoenlein said. "Just as Israel benefits from what America is doing in Afghanistan, America benefits from what Israel is doing against terrorism."