The good news: America’s shooting war with Afghanistan and the attacks of Sept. 11 probably won’t make Israel more of a target for terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, according to Israeli Professor Gerald Steinberg.
The bad news: Weapons of mass destruction are still being developed in virtually every other country in the region.
An expert in Mideast weapons sales, arms control and U.S.-Israel defense policy, Steinberg predicts the Jewish state’s most serious problems will emanate not from Palestinians or bin Laden but from the Mideast’s usual suspects.
“The primary threats are weapons of mass destruction and military threats posed by countries like Iran, Iraq and Syria. Iraq is an immediate threat, and Iran will be over the next three-to-five years,” said Steinberg, a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and a columnist for the Jerusalem Post. “In the longer term, Egypt, Algeria and Libya also post threats, and require different Israeli and international responses.”
Steinberg, who grew up in the Bay Area and received his undergraduate degree from U.C. Berkeley, will be in Walnut Creek Thursday for a breakfast speech at the Contra Costa Jewish Community Center. The event is co-sponsored by the JCC, the Jewish Federation of the Greater East Bay and AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby.
According to Steinberg, bin Laden has always tucked the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “somewhere on his agenda,” but not near the top. The Saudi exile’s recent taped statement did little to change Steinberg’s mind.
“His primary emphasis is on Saudi Arabia, a religious crusade. George W. Bush is the leader of the infidels. Israel was one of the second or third issues he talked about. It was an afterthought,” said Steinberg in a telephone interview from Israel. “Clearly, he’s invested a lot more resources in attacking the U.S. There were the attacks on the embassies in Africa and then New York and Washington. What we know about his efforts in Israel is they’ve been relatively limited efforts.”
The professor hedges his bets on Israel’s vulnerability, however.
“The general consensus is Israel is not going to be a target as long as the war continues in Afghanistan. But on the other hand, we went through the Gulf War period when Israel was held hostage. Osama bin Laden wants to take revenge on the U.S., and one of the easiest ways is to attack Israel.”
Then again, an attack may not come because “there is heightened awareness here.”
Steinberg credits his nation’s perpetual awareness, and retaliation capacities — “meaning sure destruction” for large-scale terrorists, for preventing a chemical or biological attack.
He notes that every Israeli is issued a gas mask, and those who don’t have one “are lining up to get them now.” However, he credits the U.S. demand for gas masks to ” a certain level of panic.”
Steinberg hopes the enduring result of Sept. 11 will be tighter relations between the United States and Israel, despite the testiness of recent weeks. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon last week accused the United States and others of attempting to appease Arab countries at Israel’s expense, likening the move to the Allies’ offering of Czechoslovakia to Hitler as a sacrificial lamb in 1938. He has since apologized profusely for the remark.
“Sharon backed up and apologized, and said he was misunderstood. The spin doctors are all active. Maybe this will clean the air and create a foundation of American-Israeli cooperation,” Steinberg said. “[Colin] Powell did put pressure on [Yasser] Arafat, and Arafat did finally start arresting some terrorists. But I suspect some time in the next several years this will haunt both Bush and Sharon. The challenge is to not allow this [to interfere], as undiplomatic as it was politically.”
Steinberg maintained that personal animosity between former Prime Minister Yitzak Shamir and former President Bush hurt both politically, with both losing subsequent elections.
Testiness aside, Steinberg said the United States is now listening when Israel speaks of dangerous military developments in the region.
“Israel has often gone to the U.S. and said, ‘Look, Russia is selling material to Iran, and Iraq is a greater threat.’ Under Clinton, the U.S. was in some ways, overly passive. They felt the threat would go away, and there was nothing they could do about it.
“Certainly, since Sept. 11, there has been more coordination between the U.S. and Israel.” he said. “The U.S. is now much more aware of threats Israel has been talking about for a number of years.”