Is Barak’s ‘civil reform’ a risky bluff?

WASHINGTON -- Last weekend, Prime Minister Ehud Barak astounded even his colleagues with a massive plan for secularization, making everyone from political analysts to the general public scratch their heads in wonder.

The sweeping plan for "civil reform," if approved, would transform Israeli society by removing many of the privileges Israel's religious establishment has enjoyed since the country's 1948 founding.

The changes would close the Religious Affairs ministry, authorize civil marriages, protect women's rights, require national service for those not entering the army, draft yeshiva students, and teach secular subjects such as civics, math and English in state-financed schools that serve the haredi, or fervently religious.

"The national agenda has now changed," Barak told Israel Radio after calling for a drastically secularized written constitution within one year. "After the withdrawal from Lebanon and putting the economy on its feet, it is time to raise the flag of social issues."

The merits and widespread popular support for Barak's ideas were, the fundamentals of his electoral success last year, leaving many believing that the prime minister is pessimistic about achieving peace with the Palestinians. Although he said he would continue efforts to make peace with Israel's neighbors, without the support of his parliament, Barak may be appealing to the secular populace.

Although the chances for these reforms' passage appear very slim, the announcement is the latest in a series that seems to be aimed at winning favor with the Israeli public -- a strategy that could be of use for setting the stage of future elections.

Last week, Finance Minister Avraham Shochat announced a number of dramatic cuts in sales taxes on such items as household appliances and electronics.

However, it is unclear if Barak is serious about these reforms -- or if this is just another clumsy effort to lure his unreliable Orthodox Shas Party coalition partners back into his government.

Not surprisingly, haredi leaders are outraged. Sources in Barak's One Israel bloc said the move was tantamount to a "divorce" from the fervently religious party.

Eli Yishai, leader of Shas, the largest party Barak wants to attract, condemned Barak's pronouncement as "a call to divide the nation and for a cultural war." Leaders of other religious parties termed it an attempt to "turn the state of Israel into a non-Jewish country...undermining the foundations of the society."

That makes it all the more puzzling that Barak would raise the "secular revolution" gambit now as a way of pressuring the haredim back into his government.

Barak said he still wants the religious parties to join a peace cabinet to approve any agreement he makes with the Palestinians. But if the peace talks fail, he has threatened to turn to the secular parties and put together a unity government to focus on domestic issues.

For that he will need Likud, but its leader, Ariel Sharon, has rejected the plan as the product of "a shocked, panicked government" that should be brought down. One of his colleagues called it a ploy to "drive a wedge between the religious parties and the Likud." Secular politicians fear Barak is using them to get Shas to rejoin the government. Others call it a clumsy attempt to pressure the Palestinians.

They're all probably right.

Ironically, the man who is really calling the shots in the potential revolution within Israel is Yasser Arafat. If he decides he's ready to make peace, Barak will shelve his reform package and try to buy Shas back into the coalition. If Arafat balks, a frustrated, increasingly desperate Barak may see pushing the secular agenda as his only hope for political survival.

If Arafat remains intransigent, Barak will drop his religious courtship and try to enlist Likud, the Russian immigrant parties, Shinui and other seculars into a unity government to enact his domestic revolution. But don't be surprised if the leaders of those parties, recognizing the move as a sign of Barak's weakness, opt instead for new elections.

Both Labor and Likud, their popularity waning, have ignored repeated opportunities to work together for true electoral and social reform, choosing instead to gain short-term advantage over the other by making alliances with extremist parties. Some of those small parties, particularly Shas, proved to be smarter and more adept at political games. Today they hold the balance of power in any Israeli government.

Barak's proposed reforms are meritorious and essential if this trend is to be reversed, but many wonder if he is just trying to pressure the ultra-religious to support his efforts to sign a peace agreement with the Palestinians. If they dump him again, can he really form a unity government?