Camp David outcome will make or break Israel chief

Ehud Barak might just be the smartest, greatest politician in Israel's history. Or maybe not. I am not alone when I say that I just don't understand how he is going to pull this off. Or isn't he?

At Camp David, Barak is negotiating for the future of Israel. On paper, that future entails security needs, borders and water allocations. But in actuality, it means much more. He is negotiating for the peace of mind and rights of survival for every person living in Israel. He is also negotiating for his own political survival in a country that has been emotionally, even more than politically, ripped apart by the prospect of this summit, let alone the resulting finale.

Barak has cleared his calendar. He will be out of the country behind very closed doors at a time when the rest of Israel is left to deal with a doctors' strike that is 130-plus days old, a water situation approaching crisis levels and a government without ministers, where he personally holds 10 positions.

Barak has lost his government and the Knesset. He is hanging on by only the narrowest of margins. He is surviving not because parliament members are voting in his favor, but because they are not voting against him. And for the first time in the history of the state of Israel, the government remains in place due to the support of the Arab parties, who are, naturally, in support of Barak's negotiations with the Palestinians.

Repeatedly over the past few weeks, Barak has proclaimed that he was elected by an overwhelming majority of the people, with a mandate to pursue peace. True. He pledges to fulfill that mandate even with the backing of only 25 percent of the Knesset and nine ministers. His math is correct. But I doubt that he ever imagined this would come to pass.

Natan Sharansky and his party have left the coalition. The National Religious Party has left the coalition. Shas, at the behest of its spiritual leader and mentor, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, has left the coalition. It is not that they oppose peace. They oppose Barak's peace process. They have all left because after begging, repeatedly beseeching, the prime minister to tell them what his red lines are, what he is willing to negotiate for and what he is willing to give up, he has remained unbending in his determination to remain silent. The country and its elected representatives are in the dark. We can only hope that Barak does indeed have a plan.

Even David Levy, Israel's foreign minister, has chosen not to join the Israeli delegation at Camp David. What kind of statement is that? The foreign minister is not going to Camp David!

There are several frightening scenarios that may come out of the Camp David Summit.

Scenario 1: If the summit fails, Barak will be stronger than he has been since his first few weeks in office. It sounds ironic, but he will have shown that he did whatever he could to strike a deal with the Palestinians but simply had to stop on the points that jeopardized Israel and its security.

'In that case' Barak will come back to Israel as a strong leader and those who left him will run to greet him as hero. He will at that point also be able to embark on a national unity government. Until now, he has rejected that option out of hand. A unity government could issue a blanket proposal to the Palestinians -- "take it or leave it" -- with the backing of 95 percent of the Knesset and a strong majority of the voting populous.

Scenario 2: Barak could come back with an agreement. Should that happen it will probably be his political end. He has promised a referendum plus new elections. If he comes back with an agreement, an election is all he needs. The referendum is superfluous. By voting him out of office, the country would be signifying, in effect, its distrust of his agreement. With today's political climate and comfort level, there is no way he will win an election. His numbers are way down and just as he did with the Knesset and his ministers, he has failed miserably at educating the masses about his plan.

Every attempt Barak has made to reassure the Israelis has backfired. He comes off as aloof and superior. His constant repetition of the phrases "No one can teach me about security," "I have served in this country's army for 35 years," "I will not jeopardize Israel's future" and "Trust me," ring hollow and annoying. Most people feel patronized when they hear him say these lines time and again. They are empty expressions unless followed with specifics. Even the newspapers are poking fun at his statements.

That is why Shas left the coalition. It is why Sharansky and the National Religious Party left the coalition. Barak refused to let them in on his secret. And so, on the eve of the Camp David Summit, they bolted.

There has been criticism of Shas. After all, in its most recent crisis, Shas pledged support for the government. Since the 1970s, Shas' Yosef has long proclaimed that he is in favor of "land for peace." So why is the party opposing this summit? Because Barak has still not honored his promises to Shas, not just the most recent agreements, but the original agreements of 11 months ago, as well.

Also, Yosef is not convinced that what the Palestinians are offering is peace. In a recent speech he said, "We are offering peace and they are threatening violence and an intifada. This is not the peace that I was referring to [when I spoke of land for peace]." Even then, Barak refused, even under the veil of privacy, to reveal his plan.

It is true, Israel and the Palestinians are at a crossroads. The United States, at this point in time, is forcing their hands in order to forge their futures.

If Barak pulls this off he is a genius unparalleled in Israeli political history. If he fails, his political career is history.