Are the events in Lebanon a defeat and a disaster for Israel?
The truth is that no one really knows yet. Everything depends on what comes next.
If there are continuing cross-border ground or rocket attacks, then the decision to close down the security zone was a serious mistake. If, however, Hezbollah and others in Lebanon stay on their side of the frontier — no matter how much they brag about an alleged victory — the pullout will have improved Israel’s situation.
Here are some crucial points to keep in mind:
*Israel created the security zone to stop attacks on itself, especially against civilian communities near the border. The zone served that purpose well for many years. At the end, it no longer fulfilled that function. Consequently, Israel decided to withdraw.
It is ridiculous to compare the situation to America’s Vietnam or to some great tactical defeat. This view only makes sense to those Arabs who falsely claim Israel wanted to keep southern Lebanon permanently.
*Militarily, it is foolish to fight a war on someone else’s terms. Hezbollah wanted Israel to wage a war based on small-unit ground attacks and ambushes of military convoys moving up to the front. Israel’s strength is to fortify the border and use high-technology and aerial weapons to stop or punish incursions.
*Israeli deterrence will remain unharmed if the government retaliates intensively and creatively for any cross-border attacks.
Current talk about Israel being weak is reminiscent of similar statements made after the 1973 and 1982 wars, the Palestinian intifada, or the Iraqi missile attacks of 1991. In each of these cases, the Arabs did not take seriously their own talk that force had proven the best way to confront Israel. They did not forget Israel’s willingness and ability to strike back.
*The return of Lebanese civilian refugees to southern Lebanon is a very good thing. The more people come back to the villages and resume their normal life, the greater their incentive to oppose some new war that will drive them out again. No matter how many Hezbollah flags these people wave, they must know that continued Hezbollah attacks will ensure they will soon be fleeing northward again.
*A key element is going to be whether the Lebanese government and army take some control in southern Lebanon or if an international force is established to help maintain peace along the border. All these factors, of course, have significant weak points but could help ease the tension.
*The United States and other international forces should act to prevent or inflict a price on Syria and Iran — including broader sanctions against them — for trying to promote a new war along the Lebanese-Israeli border.
One of the first examples of this problem was totally misunderstood internationally. The foreign media covered Israel’s destruction of 10 tanks in the hands of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command — Syria’s favorite Palestinian group — in Lebanon. But no one pointed out that handing over such tanks marks a considerable, dangerous escalation by Damascus.
This situation is going to have a real effect in further reducing any chance of an Israeli-Syrian agreement.
First, Syria has lost one of its most treasured — though illusory — cards, using Hezbollah as leverage to try to get Israeli concessions in the Golan.
Second, there will surely be increasing Lebanese resentment, significant even if relatively small, of continuing Syrian occupation.
Third, Israel is going to resent very strongly Syrian and Iranian efforts to arm, finance and encourage cross-border attacks. It is quite possible that this will lead at some point to Israeli reprisals against Iranian and Syrian installations within Lebanon.
*Finally, but certainly not least important, is the tragedy of the South Lebanon Army. The SLA was never just a puppet group but represented real elements within Lebanon who did not want to live under a Hezbollah dictatorship.
Israel must provide adequate haven for as many of these people as possible. Failure to do so might not have major strategic consequences, but it would be a real disgrace for the country.