JERUSALEM — Israel’s presence in Lebanon over the past two decades has long been compared to the tragic American experience in Vietnam.
And the political uncertainty generated by Israel’s hasty troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon this week is again evoking comparisons with the chaos that surrounded the American withdrawal from Vietnam 25 years ago.
When Israel’s cabinet unanimously voted in early March to pull Israeli troops out of Lebanon by July 7, there were fears that such a move could create a dangerous power vacuum in the region.
The situation, to say the least, is now in flux. And it has prompted numerous questions — and Israeli officials may have to improvise the answers as they go along. The questions include:
*What if Hezbollah escalates its attacks?
Hezbollah has made no promises to cease its attacks against Israel after the troop withdrawal.
To the contrary, Hezbollah’s leaders have repeatedly pledged to continue fighting “until we reach Jerusalem.”
Israel’s current intelligence appraisals are pessimistic. Some officials predict cross-border attacks by Lebanese and Palestinian gunmen.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has repeatedly threatened harsh retaliation against Hezbollah, Lebanon and possibly even Syrian targets.
This last option has raised concern that in the absence of progress in the now suspended Israeli-Syrian talks, a military confrontation between the two nations is possible.
*How will the withdrawal affect Israel’s northern border?
Israel first sent troops into southern Lebanon in March 1978 to try to halt terrorist attacks by the Palestine Liberation Organization, which set up headquarters there after its ouster from Jordan.
Further escalation with the PLO led to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982. Three years later, Israel carved out a 9-mile-wide security zone in southern Lebanon to defend its northern communities against cross-border attacks from the PLO and, later, from Hezbollah.
Now, with the Israel’s troop withdrawal completed six weeks earlier than planned, Israelis in the northern communities fear attacks.
Residents of the north are not only worried about Katyusha rocket assaults, but also by the fact that their enemy is now just across the border. In some Israeli settlements, this translates into just a few yards from their homes.
*How will Syria react to the withdrawal?
Syria initially opposed the unilateral Israeli withdrawal because it would cost Damascus considerable leverage in its own negotiations with Israel.
However, as Israel raised international support for the withdrawal, Syria has softened its position.
Israel insists that it withdrew to the international border with Lebanon that was defined in a 1923 agreement between Britain and France. But Syria wants the withdrawal to include parts of the slopes of Mount Hermon, at the meeting point of the borders of Syria, Lebanon and Israel.
This strategically important area was captured by Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel accuses Syria of artificially trying to create yet another crisis with its latest demand.
The demand for this land could prove significant because it would enable Damascus, which calls the shots in Lebanon, to maintain in the international arena that Israel did not fully withdraw from all Lebanese territory.
Moreover, Hezbollah has vowed to keep launching attacks on Israel.