Death of king leaves Mubarak as region’s top leader

JERUSALEM -- With two Middle East leaders recently deceased and two more ill and fading, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is emerging as the region's most important leader.

Jordan's King Hussein and Morocco's King Hassan have left the scene, to be replaced by young, inexperienced sons. Syria's President Hafez Assad may be making his last stand, with an equally unseasoned heir in training. In Saudi Arabia, ailing King Fahd has a much better-prepared understudy, Crown Prince Abdullah.

The Middle East's generational transition is happening right now. Mubarak himself is 71 years old.

Even though moderate leaders are, unfortunately, dying faster than radical ones, a new generation is coming into office that has less interest in or patience with the old quarrels of the region, including the Arab-Israeli conflict. For them, peace seems normal, not a bizarre detour from a half-century of struggle.

Of course, untested leaders are less predictable. Only when they've faced the first real crisis can one truly take their measure. Each case has its own, different circumstances.

For example, in the direct peace process, Assad's personal distress -- coupled with Syria's problems -- may be the key for a big breakthrough. If he believes that a clean desk is his most important legacy for his son, Bashar, Assad will want to move quickly. That will become clear within the next three months.

In contrast, Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat may think about his need to find a successor, but it's having no perceptible effect on his policies. The Palestinian Authority is implying in the latest confused exchanges that it prefers to do nothing about a permanent peace accord until the Wye River memorandum is fully implemented. That means a six-month delay in negotiating a full peace agreement.

Mubarak's role here has not gained importance. If the Israelis and Palestinians are talking directly and building trust, an Egyptian intermediary is not needed.

But in regard to Syria, Mubarak could play an enthusiastic and useful role in prodding Damascus toward making a deal, something he has wanted for many years.

Most important, Mubarak is now the Arab world's unchallenged senior leader. From Israel's standpoint, there are good and bad outcomes in this situation.

On one hand, Mubarak views Israel as a potential rival for regional leadership and has pushed for a nuclear-free zone on terms unfavorable to Israeli interests. He is no match for Hussein or Hassan when it comes to building peace through personal warmth and has sought to slow the pace of Israel's normalization with other Arab states.

On the other hand, Mubarak has been a leading voice in urging moderation in the Arab world, has often (though not always) urged Arafat to make deals and wants to maintain peace with Israel. Mubarak's speeches to Arab summits have defined a whole new psychology and direction for the Arabs.

Only Mubarak has the muscle to ensure a united Arab front against any aggression by Iraq or Iran. And if the peace process with Syria and the Palestinians advances, he could well be the one to lead the Arab states collectively into a new era of peace with Israel.